WASHINGTON: US President Bill Clinton’s CIA Director James Woolsey views an Indo Pakistan nuclear war “perhaps most probable.”
He told the Governmental Affairs Committee headed by Senator John Glenn: “The arms race between India and Pakistan poses the most probable prospect for future use of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons.
“Both nations have nuclear weapons development programs and could, on short notice, assemble nuclear weapons, Neither India nor does Pakistan seem to scrimp on resources for their expensive military programs, despite dire economic conditions and widespread poverty among their citizens.
“India’s program, older and probably larger than Pakistan’s, culminated in 1974 with a nuclear detonation and we are convinced has progressed from there.”
Glenn said; “A nuclear exchange on the Subcontinent would be devastating. Millions of innocent Civilians in this densely populated region would be vulnerable, particularly as each side strives to develop missiles with which to reach deeper into the other’s territory, to put at risk major population centers, including Islamabad and New Delhi.
“And both countries are also enabling of developing chemical weapons. Competition between the two means that one’s perception of the other fuels competitive work, and thus helps reality catch up with fear.”
Woolsey complained about the supply of a cryogenic engine by Russia for India’s space program. He said: “Economic and nationalist pressures are causing some Russian and Ukrainian leaders to question the wisdom of adhering to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).
“Some Russians contend that national laws, not the MTCR, will govern their export of missile technology,” the CIA chief said.
“Our initial understanding of the Russian regulations indicate they May not be consistent with the MTCR, Russia, for example, has already sold rocket engine technology to India that would be inconsistent with MTCR guidelines.
“In a recent arms show in Moscow, the Russians advertised a derivative of the old SS23 for sale as a civilian rocket, rising additional inter concerns.”
Meanwhile, the US has also voiced “continuing concern” at China’s help to Pakistan’s nuclear weapon program, despite Beijing’s promise last year to abide by the international Nonproliferation Treaty barring such assistance.
The Washington Post quoted a US official saying: “China’s principal motivation is to assist Pakistani efforts to offset India’s nuclear weapons capability.”
But they are driven by greed as well as ideology,” said another official, nothing that China obtains substantial sums for its nuclear related exports to Pakistan and more Third World nations.
Article extracted from this publication >> March 5, 1993
