CHANDIGARH — Punjab, which is poised for the fourth term of President’s Rule, does not have a better future if the dismal record of the previous three terms is any indication.

The situation on the law and order front has gone from bad to worse during the three successive terms starting from May 11 last year. As the first 18 months of the rule come to a close, “the flashback is harrowing.” There is no categorical assurance from the Centre and the state administration that the murder and mayhem the people of Punjab have been witnessing for so long would be curbed effectively.

Apart from the general feeling of dismay the official figures of violence also indicate the worsening of the situation. The number of civilians and policemen killed during the first term was 609 and rose to 818 during the second term. The number for the third term (till October 20) is 905 and there are yet three weeks to be taken into account. The increase in Killings, according to press reports, is 25 percent.

Toll of Sikh Youngmen

The number of Sikh youngmen killed and arrested in the first term was 252 and about 2500, respectively. The two numbers “dipped to 101 and 1142 during the second term because of the Prime Minister’s initiative starting with the release of the detained Akali leaders and a deal with Mr. Jasbir Singh Rode and other Sikh priests in March, which amounted to appeasement of the militants. The policy did not pay and killings of civilians and policemen continued to rise.

Innocent killings

The third term which has seen operation Black Thunder, redetection of the Akali leaders and the implementation of the Prime Minister’s ‘action-plan’ on Punjab has moved up the graph of killings of Sikh youth and the number of arrests also went up to about 2000. “We are still claiming the hump and nowhere near crossing it,” is how an official assessed the situation.

There is a palpable vacuum in Punjab’s leadership because of the failure of its political system and the Governor or the bureaucrats with all their efforts have not been able to replace the politicians. The distance between the administration and the people has constantly been widening. The state has grievances removal machinery and a top heavy vigilance system which, in the absence of a feed-back, appear to be defunct.

The Prime Minister’s two visits to the state recently, do not seem to have enthused the people or help revive its political system or any visible impact on the administration. The first visit on September 21 was followed by a deluge which washed away, along with crops and houses the euphoria of the massive economic dose injected into the Punjab economy and the pep-talk on Mr. Gandhi. The panchayat elections promised by the Prime Minister on that day at Goindwal as a prelude to the revival of the political system appear distant now. That Punjab is to remain under President’s Rule for a longer period is provided in the Constitution (69th Amendment) Act of March 1988. The act, besides providing for the promulgation of emergency in Punjab, provide for the extension of President’s Rule up to three years., that is, up to May 1990.

According to highly placed sources, neither the Centre nor the Governor is in favor of early elections in Punjab to resume the popular rule. Assembly elections are not even being considered at the moment and may take place after the Lok Sabha elections.

Role of police

The police, which, as the wisecrackers go, is the second relevant factor in Punjab, the first being the militants — is as much over-worked as “over-directed.” Parliamentary forces have to act, now and again, under directives, from above. This not only affects their morale but makes their task difficult. The circumstances in which the IGP (border), Mr. Chaman Lal, had to leave his post to go back to the BSF, have brought down further the morale of the security forces. It is not known that the entire drama of the entry of Mr. Jasbir Singh Rode and other sacked head priests into the Golden Temple on October 10 that led to the unusual reaction of Mr. Chaman Lal, was remotely controlled from Delhi. Similarly, the forces are frequently asked to change their strategy towards militants and it ranges between utmost repression and utmost leniency to suit the remote controllers.

Whether the fourth term would change the dismal scenario will depend largely on the Centre’s intentions and the Akali politics. There appears to be a unity of Purpose among the SGPC, the head priests and the Akali Dal led by Mr. Jagdev Singh Talwandi. Their efforts have created hope that the Golden Temple would start getting back its serenity. It is yet to be seen if this unity continues and the center allows it to take firm roots irrespective of the effect it may have on the fortunes of the Congress(|) in the state.

Article extracted from this publication >> November 25, 1988