NEW DELHI: Fearful that an announcement of autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir would adversely affect Congress prospects in the General Election, Prime Minister P.V, Narasimha Rao has decided not to grant any political ‘concession to J&K before the proposed Assembly elections in November.
As a consequence, the J&K National Conference, the most prominent pro-India political party in the Kashmir Valley, is likely to boycott the polls, further eroding the Government’s credibility.
Sources in the Home Ministry said that the Government was planning a November election in the State. A quick announcement followed by a shortened three-week campaign is expected in October, so that the electoral process coincides with the seasonal ebbing of armed militancy, and the installation of a new Government coincides with the shifting of admiration to the State’s winter capital Jammu.
A November election also fits in with the Center’s plans for an April Lok Sabha election, as far as the logistics of security deployment is concerned.
However, the Prime Minister, who had in May promised the people of Kashmir autonomy that was anything “short of azadi,” has reportedly decided that any such announcement close to general elections would make a dent in his party’s chances in the parliamentary polls, He is apprehensive of the BJP successfully using any grant of autonomy for the Muslims majority State to the Congress party’s electoral detriment.
He has been further emboldened to do nothing by the fact that the ongoing abduction crisis, in which four foreigners have been held hostage by the extremist Al Faran, has swung international opinion, particularly that of the Western countries, in India’s favor.
Consequently, the National Conference, which has been demanding a political package as prerequisite for its participation in the State polls, is almost certain to boycott the elections, Party president Farooq Abdullah, who is presently in London, is returning to India this coming week and will take stock of the situation.
Sources said that it may suit the NC to boycott the elections for other reasons as well, for the party is not sure how well it will fare despite the common man’s haustion with the violence that insurgency and governmental repression have brought the pasts years.
The party’s calculations are that it will not win any of the s¢ in either the Jammu (37) or Ladakh (4) regions, where they have been traditionally weak. The in the Valley’s 46 constituent Bight of uxembly cons envies, in border areas like Kupwara, are dominated by Gujjar votes, which are likely to go to Congress, The remaining 38 seats are likely to see a very low tum: out, which would hurt the NC and help the Congress. Some may even be countermanded due to violence, which the militants are sure to step up. In this scenario, the NC feels that it might be better to boycott the polls.
Article extracted from this publication >> September 15, 1995
