THE Haryana debacle can have far more serious repercussions on Rajiv Gandhi’s political future than any single development during his two and a half year rule. There was no element of surprise in Congress (I)’s defeat in Haryana — most observers of the Indian scene had not given Rajiv and his Congress (I) much of a chance — but none had anticipated that the party would be routed so completely. It was shocking to see Congress (I) being reduced to a level of a nonentity in Haryana politics, a Hindi speaking belt and a prestige area for Congress (1). This explains the dimension and magnitude of the setback to Congress (I) and Rajiv.

IGNOMINIOUS DEFEAT

There are three reasons for Rajiv’s ignominious defeat in Haryana. In the first place Rajiv has no achievement to his credit which he could exploit as a “vote catching slogan”. On the contrary his two and a half year rule has been a story of mounting disillusionment. The sympathy wave, which gave Rajiv an unprecedented victory during the last national polls, has largely subsided. The masses would now like to judge Mr. Rajiv by his deeds and not by what his image promises. Secondly, the Fairfax and Bofor scandals have badly rocked the Congress (I) and this has irreparably damaged the party’s mass appeal. And lastly Mr. Rajiv’s halfhearted measures to resolve the Punjab crisis have cost him both Haryana and the Punjab.

The outcome of the Haryana poll is important for another reason. With Rajiv losing favor, first in Chandigarh and now in Haryana, his ability to resolve the Punjab tangle has been greatly impaired. After the dismissal of Barnala’s Ministry, the moderate elements in the Akali Dal, who remain. A vital element in any move towards reconciliation in Punjab, will think twice before trusting Mr. Rajiv again. It is not known how: the new…. Lok Dal Government in Haryana will view the Punjab situation, but there is a distinct likelihood that its comprehension may differ from that of New Delhi. There has to be a close rapport between New Delhi, Chandigarh and Haryana for any meaningful move towards pacification in Punjab. But with New Delhi, Chandigarh and Haryana, all going in different directions, the Punjab crisis is likely to aggravate further.

OPPOSITION CAMPAIGN

Rajiv Gandhi has not come out with any explanation on the Haryana debacle. The overwhelming defeat has stunned him and his to clearly on the defensive. The opposition has demanded his resignation and the dissolution of the Indian Parliament, But Rajiv still has sufficient political support to weather this storm. The Congress (I) still rules in half of the 25 Indian states and Rajiy Gandhi continues to enjoy a commanding majority at the Centre. The coming Presidential election has afforded Mr. Gandhi an opportunity to somewhat rehabilitate his sagging popularity. The situation would have become explosive for Rajiv had the opposition agreed to nominate Zail Singh as its candidate. But they could not do so (here the Communist Parties came to Rajiv’s rescue) thus leaving the field to the Congress (I) candidate. Zail Singh could have proved a trump card for the opposition but being a Sikh it was not easy for him to exercise all his political options.

Since the last general elections the Indian opposition has made quite headway, but it has not fully cashed in on Rajiv’s failures which have been many. Its biggest gain has been its outstanding success in the Haryana polls. The coming Nagaland polls may tum out to be another big occasion for the opposition. But unfortunately the Indian opposition does not have big names in its ranks that can help it to win votes all over India. V.P. Singh will take some time to develop into a national leader. He has a popular appeal and was the first to have revolted against Rajiv’s style and his practices. But he would probably prefer to fill in the vacuum in the Congress than lead the opposition. He is ready to step in if Rajiv does not change his style and continue to falter.

Mr. Bahuguna, the old campaigner and Lok Dal Chief, has said that he will build up a campaign for the ouster of Rajiv. His rallies will certainly attract large gatherings. This is the first time that Rajiv will be facing a somewhat volatile and organized opposition. How Rajiv counters this new challenge will be vitally important to India and Rajiv himself. His impulsive reaction, to which he is prone, can land him and India in deep trouble.

RAJIV THE LUCKY.

So far Rajiv Gandhi has ridden his luck well. Destiny has placed him in the seat of highest authority in India. But he needs more than luck alone to rule a vast and heterogeneous country like India. It is difficult to say that Rajiv has learned anything from his recent electoral disasters. It is strange that the biggest democracy in the world should have run out of its options visavis leadership. These only shows that something is wrong somewhere. For 34 years out of 40, power has remained confined to the Nehru’s family. This is not against democratic practices (after all the people have given them the mandate to rule the country) but it is certainly against the spirit of democracy. And this partly explains the absence of alternative leadership in India. For Rajiy it will be a source of consolation that with no alternative leadership available in the country the people will inevitably look to him to lead’ them but for India this situation should be a source of concern: As a matter of fact the future of Indian democracy hinges on the country’s ability to produce and develop/an alternative leadership.

 ADVENTURISM:

Rajiv has found it difficult to get along with his colleagues. He apparently does not trust most of them. His frequent changes in the cabinet bear testimony to’ this. Tiwari is the third foreign minister in his two and a half year rule. Unlike his late grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru and his mother Indira Gandhi who took great pains to maintain and nourish a sound team around them, Mr. Rajiv has acted contrary to this and has only ended up by creating a mess.

The frequency with which Rajiv has changed his emphasis and postures while dealing with issues, both internal and external, has been amazing. He started promisingly to seek settlement of some of the buming problems such as the Sikh agitation in Punjab and the Assam crisis. And he appeared close to finding solutions to these issues but he could not produce that extra bit of effort which could have made all the difference. Since then there has been a reverse trend and’ the situation in Punjab has gone from bad to worse. Now the Gurkha agitation has further marted the Indian scene.

It is important to note that since Mr. Rajiv’s failure on the Punjab and Assam front there has been 4 significant change in his strategy. Finding the internal problems too complicated Mr. Rajiv has tended to build up along the Chinese frontier and lastly the highly provocative and adventurous moves on the Lankan Front have all been part of the “Master Plan’ to divert the masses attention from the rapidly deteriorating situation in the country. With Rajiv in this mood, India’s neighbors have to be on their guard. It is only hoped that Rajiv will realize soon that in the final analysis his countrymen will judge him by his achievements at home and not by any adventure abroad.

Article extracted from this publication >>  July 17, 1987