Like all politicians Vishwanath Pratap Singh dreams of powered sees himself as the once-and-future prime minister leader of a winning coalition of Muslims low-caste Hindus and the poor in general. Reality is likely to disappoint him the most his National Front of let list and regional parties can hope for when India’s general election is decided on May 26th is a third of the seats-enough to make him king-maker in a hung parliament but not enough to make him king.

What feeds his imagination is the memory of the November 1989 election. Victory then came from Mr Singh’s campaign against corruption His time in office a mere year was disappointing: Mr Singh had to spend his energy preventing his quarrel-some Janata Dal Party from splitting (which it did nonetheless last November). Thus distracted he failed to stop party goons rigging by-elections. He failed too to uncover proof that his predecessor as Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi had received kickbacks from the Swedish company Bofors. Success was confined to winning the hearts of Muslims and the lower castes and even their loyalty is now suspected.

More to the point that success came at the expense of Hindu support Last year when Hindu militants egged on by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wanted to demolish a mosque on a disputed site in Ayodhya in the state of Uttar Pradesh Mr Singh and the state’s chief minister stood firm. Hindus were told not to converge on the mosque and those who did were fired upon by the police-and several Hindus were killed. This cost Mr Singh not only Hindu support but also his job the BJP with-drew its support from his government. Soon afterwards his party split in two Muslim voters is now divided between the two-or in disgust have drifted back to the Congress Party of Mr Gandhi. To woo them back Mr Singh struck a deal with a religious leader of New Delhi the Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid in return for the imam’s support Mr Singh would let him vet his Muslim candidates.

Me Singh should not have bothered. Not only is he derided as the imam’s stenographer obediently taking dictation but the imam’s influence is limited. Quite possibly therefore the pact with the imam may have cost Mr Singh more votes than it gained.

Where Mr Singh will win votes is in the lower levels of India’s infinitely stratified society As prime minister he announced the reservation of 27% of government jobs for the disadvantaged “intermediate” and “backward” castes thus adding more affirmative action to the 22.5% of such jobs already reserved for untouchables and tribesmen. But popularity among these inferior castes has to be weighed against massive upper-caste resentment manifest last year in riots across the country and in dreadful self-immolations by emotional students.

Those who earlier hailed Mr Singh as an incorruptible man of principle (and his reputation for personal honesty remains) now revile him for opportunism: the backward castes account for roughly half the population-and roughly half the electorate. Others think it odd that the liberal finance minister of Mr Gandhi’s cabinet six years ago should join with assorted mullahs and leftists. Meanwhile pandering to the mullahs has alienated many lower-caste Hindus. The Bahujan Samaj Party representing the untouchables of north India has refused to join Mr Singh’s alliance.

But for all his poor party organization lack of money and flagging energy for the campaign Mr Singh cannot be counted out. He should do well in caste-conscious Bihar and in several other states while his support for the backward castes has made him only the second Indian politician (after Rajiv Gandhi) to appeal to voters in southern as well as northern states. Earlier this year he helped his leftist allies to defeat Mr Gandhi’s Congress party in local elections in Kerala a state which had returned virtually all of Mr Gandhi’s nominees in the 1989 general election. Moreover the Janata Dat is allied to strong regional parties in Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh and Haryana. In West Bengal Mr Singh’s leftist allies should as usual sweep the polls.

But what then? Mr Singh’s real worry is that not just his alliance but his own party will break up once the election is over. He has antagonized too many upper-caste people in his party to rest comfortably. If Rajiv Gandhi needs defectors to gain a majority in the event of a hung parliament he will look for them in the Janata Dal. (Economist)

Article extracted from this publication >> May 24, 1991