NEW DELHI: It is becoming increasingly clear that Prime Minister V.P. Singh will not be able to win a vote of confidence from the Lok Sabha on November 7. A viable alternative leader is hard to find. The country may have to go in for a midterm election sooner than later.
Unless either the Congress (I) condescends to retain him or the B.J.P. revises its stand withdrawing support to the Prime Minister, there is no way V.P. Singh could win the majority vote in the house. Both these possibilities should be firmly ruled out considering the amount of hostility Singh attracts from the two Parties.
It is evident that most member of the present Lok Sabha are averse to the idea of fresh election The Congress (I) is not ready to face the electorate at the moment unless driven to the wall. It would like the Janata Dal to be disrupted through its Trojan Horses such a: Arun Nehru or would like a mar like Chander Shekhar to take over so that the Janata experiment is shown to have failed yet again.
What is common between the Congress (I) and the B.J.P. is their anxiety to see than an interim arrangement is allowed to emerge and the new political configuration promised by V.P. Singh is blurred. The two parties will suffer the maximum in the event of an immediate election with the Mandal issue being projected as a key slogan by the Prime Minister. For that reason alone they would like postponement of the midterm election.
However, the Prime Minister and the leftist parties are in favour of holding the midterm election immediately but V.P. Singh is trying hard to take his party’s reluctant M.P.s along with him so that the Congress (I) or the B.J.P. do not create disruption by luring one or the other to take over as Prime Minister after November 7. Arun Nehru has the maximum potential to create mischief within the Janata Dall. Next comes Chander Shekhar who is ambitious enough to sacrifice any principle.
The Prime Minister’s seemingly bold offer to face the Lok Sabha and to win from it a vote of confidence is merely a tactic aimed at gaining time. Whether the M.P.s chose Devi Lal or Chander Shekhar the party will have to reach an open or secret understanding either with the BJP or with the Congress (I). In the event of an understanding with the BJP the party will have to give up its opposition to the BJP plan on the Babri issue and in the process lose the sympathy of Muslims and other minorities.
A section of the Indian big business is no longer averse to Devi Lal taking over as Prime Minister just as the other section wants Chander Shekhar to fill the gap left by V.P.Singh. This is evident from the sacking of the progress Arun Shourie by Goenka of the Indian Express chain of newspapers. Goenka reportedly wants Devi Lal to be the next Prime Minister and not Chander Shekhar because the latter has the backing of Dhiru bhai Ambani, another big name in Indian industry.
It is evident that Devi Lal’s accession to power will mean more violence against Sikhs by the Indian state. The Haryana leader would like to ensure an early completion of the controversial S.Y.L. canal. This could only be done by the active intervention of the Home Ministry by the use of force against Sikhs. On the other hand, Chander Shekhar, if chosen to succeed V.P.Singh, will take certain halfhearted measures to devise another variant of the RajivLongowal accord. In either situation, the Punjab problem is unlikely to be resolved by the new regime.
The people of Punjab could hope to gain a measure of autonomy and self-respect only after a few years when the Indian polity is dominated by Dalits, backward classes, minorities and regional groupings.
Article extracted from this publication >> November 2, 1990
