What is the overall trend you foresee in these elections?

A: No party is going to get a majority, in my opinion, there are three ‘main groupings, the BJP, the Congress and then on BJP non Congress, “The range for these will be from 130 to 170. Earlier, I used to predict quite ‘accurately ‘because I was moving ‘among people But for the last three years, have not been moving around, Then, there are so many developments that are unfolding now, which “may affect the people, For instance, ‘the developments in Tamil Nadu. After the elections, lobbying will ‘Start and both the BJP and the Con “875s will try to rope in the regional ‘Parties, then there will be a fierce power struggle in the Congress itself. It will be the last ditch battle for those Congressman who are terror “Narasimha Rap, This will go on simultaneously with political horse ‘trading and buying away of MPs. People will also reach here (in Delhi) “from Bombay and Calcutta and stay five star hotels, this (outcome) will largely depend on who holds whose brief.

Q: The line between various political formations has become very blurred. Do you see any positive side of this?

A: Yes. One stream will be to keep the BJP out unitedly. In this exercise, there will be particularly an effort from the Congress to rope in the non-Congress and non BJP MPs on this issue, Then there will be ideological stance taken by those like National Front and Left on this issue, They will consider both the BYP and the Congress same. But ultimately there will be some understanding between two groups because no one will like to go into the elections, Then it will become very important to save the country. Everyone will then do things to save the country because another election will not be wanted. Whatever happens, we are heading for another election in two to three years.

Q: But in this interim period, it appears that the Congress has a good chance of forming the government.

A: What if Congress spits? Then someone in the Left or JD can form the government. And what is the guarantee that the BJP will not split? All these people like Vaghela are coming to the fore. In the next five years the BJP will split You can write this down on a piece of paper,

Q: so do you see an advantage for Narasimha Rao?

All’s difficult to say because he is himself being challenged.

Q: Loyalty been biggest factor in the Congress’s ticket distribution, so there isn’t likely to be any challenge to Narasimha Rao from the new CPP, is there?

A: Yes, he has cleverly thrown out those in the hawala, because they ‘would not have supported him. It was them or him. And then, the Congress ‘of the Nehru lineage, finish it, because their loyalty could have been some-where else. So the lineage that ‘comes now, will be his.

Q: But the third force is in a disarray and there are friendly contests in virtually every state. Is there any solution to the irreconcilable differences between the leaders?

A: A lot will depend on the cohesiveness of these parties and the sagacity of their leaders, Over a time, all the differences will be sorted out. What is two years or five years in a country with a history of thousands of years? You see 1990 and you see 1996, and the change in this short span. Two governments went on an issue and there have been two prime ministers who became very unpopular. One, Indira Gandhi lost on Emergency, and I lost my government on Mandal. Emergency has not been accepted after 20 years. But Mandal has now been accepted and there is a deep satisfaction. The debate, on which everyone was against you, you win down. It’s more than achieving ‘a. government.

Q: In the event of a non BJP government, who can play a dominant role, the Congress or the NFLF?

A: The NFLF, because their number will be much larger, But then there will be efforts to shift people from one group to the other. There will be assurances of giving cabinet posts, like deputy prime minister and other wings.

But waver happening is only a phenomenon traditional periods. And the political power structure has so far rested on the social power structure, If the Left had realized this, they would have ruled the country. But they concentrated on the economic power structure. What gave stability to the Cony was the stability of a social coalition, that social structure is disintegrating, which is giving instability to it. BIP is in the process of forming one other form of social coalition, based on only Hindus, The forces of social jus tice are aiming at a different coalition, involving the dominance of the scheduled castes, minorities and backwards, But these social coalitions get disturbed just like the earth scrust moves, due to tension, leading to earthquakes. These social tensions have increased due to awareness among the deprived people, But it will lead to an equilibrium in four to five years.

The positive side is that social change has become a historical process and is no longer political, Political parties ng themselves to it helplessly. ‘is being reflected even in parties like the BJP, They were not basically convinced about it, but were dragged into it, Now with every election, more and more people from these classes will get elected because ever party is fielding them in large numbers. By two elections, from Parliament to legislatures, two thirds will be from this (deprived) section. This is the real shift of power, After Independence, governments changed, but the center of power remained where it was, for the first time, the real center of power has shifted and this is the biggest contribution of Mandal. This will get reflected when the social composition gets reflected in the chief ministers and the prime minister. After the elections, the positive trend will be that those who are deprived will come to the mainstream. If leaders don’t feel the need for it, the people will.

But the danger is that this (social change) can get communalized and this is what the BJP is saying, “If I can’t stop the process, I’ll communalize it.”’ t’s there strategy, and they are following this technique by put ting Kalyan Singh here, Munde there, fielding backward class people so this is the real danger. Social justice alone is not sufficient. Secularism is needed along with it, to safeguard it from the communal process. And here comes the role of the Left and the Janata Dal, ‘Secondly, when power is being transferred to this (deprived) section, then is not the answer of hatred. When responsibility comes to this section, then the attitude of carrying everyone along also has to be there. In the process of removing victimization of thousands of years, you cannot create new victims. That’s not good for the country.

Q: But hasn’t the process involving these correctives already started?

A: It is taking place because of the compulsion of the democratic process. You see what is happening to the BSP. It has been forced to change. It can’t use that harsh I e any more, Democracy is a self-cleaning Process. Cleaner and effective governments have become a necessity like water and light. And it is bounding duty to deliver on these courts, otherwise there will be a backlash,

Q: But if these forces are consolidating, why are you fearing that there will be horse trading from them after the elections? Why are parties like the ID susceptible to horse trading?

A; Lam talking about social integration, which is different from parties’ integration. In parties, you have several considerations like ambitions. Movements unite and parties divide. There may be ups and down, but the ‘general graph will go up. People will throw up other leaders if the present one does not come to their expectations.

Q: Don’t you think that the BSP has been treated as an untouchable by some in the Left and the JD?

A: No. The Left said that the option was open for an alliance with the BSP

An interview with a True leader after an alliance with the SP.

Q: Politically, which section is important to counter the BJP in UP, the Dalits or the backwards?

A: I would not like to go into the analysis because I am going into the campaign and I will be supporting the JD and the SP. That’s my political commitment. But it was our desire that all the three come together, SP, BSP and JD. It’s unfortunate that it has not materialized. But I hope what we have not achieved now we may achieve in the future,

Q: How can you convincingly campaign for the SP when you had canvassed against it in your public meetings organized by the JD in 1993 polls? 

A: There’s nothing personal about it because that was a commitment ag T was a JD member then. But even before the elections, I had made a proposal for a JD-SP unity and had said that chief minister ship should be offered to Mulayam Singh Yadav, It’s not as if Tam taking a U-turn now, if negotiations between two countries do not come through, the soldier has t0 go to the front. It is not as if he is against the negotiations. There is no credibility loss.

Article extracted from this publication >>  April 10, 1996