NEW DELHI: A question mark hangs over the future of the Indo Soviet Friendship Treaty which has yet to be formally extended for 20 years as agreed in principle by the two countries in August. The protocol to extend the Treaty laying down the framework for the special relationship India and the USSR have enjoyed for the past two decades was to be signed sometime in September when the Soviet Foreign Minister Alexander Bessmertnykh was expected to visit India for consultations with the new Government in New Delhi. This would have been the first high-level contact between the USSR and India for more than a year.

Bessmertnykh was however sacked after the coup and at present the Soviet Union does not have a Foreign Minister. The signing of the protocol extending the Treaty is thus up in the air sending ripples of anxiety through South Block which is now unsure when the formalities will be completed.

South Block maintains as some sort of consolation as it grapples to assess the implications of the turmoil for Indo-Soviet relations that the Treaty provides for an automatic renewal for five years unless otherwise specified by _ either party. However no one is ready to comment on the efficacy of this extension without a formal protocol reaffirming the convergence of interests as expressed in the Treaty.

Although the Treaty itself is essentially of political significance it is a sort of umbrella for the other agreements economic commercial and defence that exist between the two countries.

There is considerable apprehension in government circles about the impact of the developments in the USSR on these agreements particularly if the Soviet Union changes into a loose confederation held together by a military alliance as suggested by some of the republics

The supply of defence spares is of particular worry and the Defence Ministry’s concern is apparent in the fact that Sharad Pawar has been holding frequent meetings with the Foreign Secretary Muchkund Dubey to assess the situation in the USSR.

Pawar was scheduled to go to Moscow next month to negotiate for defence supplies which have been fairly erratic for some years now because of the increased autonomy perestroika gave to the republics. His trip is now likely to be postponed until things crystalize in the USSR.

The other aspect of Indo-Soviet ties which is causing anxiety is the future of the Rupee-Rouble trade and the huge accumulated debt India owes to the USSR. The debt was estimated to be in the region of Rs 20000 crore before the recent devaluation of the Rupee. With the devaluation the amount would be significantly more.

An agreement signed in 1978 had given the Soviet Rouble a fixed parity while the rupee’s value was to be calculated against a basket of 16 international currencies. At that time the Rouble was equivalent to Rs 10. After the recent devaluation its value under the 1978 agreement is estimated to be close to Rs 30.

Given the USSR’s urgent need for hard currency to handle its own financial problems government officials here do not see the Soviet Union soft pedaling on this.

In any case in the context of the kind of autonomy the republics are likely to get in any future set up India would have to renegotiate on all these issues and rework the details with or without the umbrella of the Indo “Soviet.

Friendship TRAETY.

Article extracted from this publication >> September 13, 1991