For the first time in four years, the Rao government in India appears to be in real trouble. A section of the ruling party’s members in Parliament has threatened to move motions proposing a cut in the budgetary allocations. In India’s parliamentary procedure, a non-voluntary cut in the budget proposals means defeat of the government. The current financial year’s budget was proposed by finance minister Manmohan Singh a few years ago. It has yet to be debated and passed by the Indian parliament. The delay was caused by elections to several state assemblies. The ruling party lost ground in many key Indian states to tilt the political balance against the Rao government. The debate about why the Congress (I) lost the poll became so acrimonious that the prime ministers who also happens to be the President of the Congress (1) threw Argun Singh and many other dissenters out of the party. The development led to a shake-up in the ruling party with many members threatening to move “cut motions. “If all the 17 dissident Congress(I) members support a cut motion and all opposition groups join hands behind them, the ruling party with 266 votes stands to win only by three votes. Thus, to all intents and purposes, it is a touch and go affair for the government. Obviously, the opposition groups are not united on policies. They are in no position to form an alternative government. The current moves could only lead to hastening the parliamentary elections which are even otherwise due in 1996.

An undisputable fact about the Rao government is that it has lost the popular base. A majority of Indians is opposed to the government. While opposition parties are interpreting the public disenchantment with the government in their own ways, a common, undeniable future of the government’s working is the prevalence of corruption. Dissidents within the ruling party rightly believe a sense of alienation among the minorities has been principally responsible for the weakening of the party. A section of the party as well as Marxists outside are of the view that the economic policies of the government are to blame for the party’s woes. The minorities are upset about the political oppression unleashed in the government through such draconian laws as TADA. No one in India thinks that the Indian prime minister leads any liberal thought process. Erroneously, withdrawal of certain outmoded procedures by the Rao government is being interpreted in the western countries as harbinger of a liberal regime. Thus, if the Rao government is ousted, it does not ipso facto mean an end to its economic policies. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, India hardly has any option other than a set of policies being followed by Dr. Manmohan Singh. These policies will have to be followed with or without modifications, by any new setup. Survival from the current crisis, which is not unlikely, does not mean that the Rao government is out of the woods. It will meet its remises in the next year’s general election. The only way to survive is through democratization of the polity at the grassroots’ level by such measures as elimination of oppressive laws, dialogue with the minority groups and by conceding their demands. The Indian polity at present is unequal to these expectations. Therefore, the Indian state’s downhill march (with political instability being a rule rather than an exception) is inevitable in the months to come.

Article extracted from this publication >>