NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Chander Shekhar is likely to be seriously handicapped in taking vital political decisions. To all intents and purposes, his will be a government of the status quo.
It will, no doubt, be a rash conclusion to call Mr Shekhar a Congress (I) puppet despite the fact that he heads a small group and is totally dependent on Mr Rajiv Gandhi’s party. Those who saw Shekhar function from close quarters assert that the Congress (I) could not take him for granted and that he will ensure in due course that more than one option opens up before him.
For Shekhar to join hands with Congress (I) was no soft decision. His supporters claim that he was pushed to the wall by the former Prime Minister. The course adopted by Singh, according to the Shekhar lobby, would have culminated in a midterm poll in the near future and a possible landslide victory for Singh to be against the Congress (I) and the B.J.P. Shekhar would not have figured at all in the Janata Dal scheme of things. It was to prevent this eventuality that he struck a deal with Congress (I) which, according to the Prime Minister’s supporters, needed him as much as he need the Congress (1).
Seen in retrospect it is fairly certain that Rajiy Gandhi himself would have agreed to head the government if Shekhar had put a little more pressure on Congress (1) to join hands with him in forming the coalition government. That speaks of the desperation in which the Congress (I) found itself in courting Shekhar as much as the latter wanted the Congress (1)’s hand.
It is evident that Rajiv Gandhi, trained in the tradition of treating minority segments broken from opposition camps with contempt, took early steps last week to dictate terms to the Prime Minister. The latter reportedly disliked the Shekhar proposal to induct Maneka Gandhi and Dr Sanjay Singh in the Cabinet. But the Prime Minister was quick to see through the pressure sought to be mounted on him. He reportedly reacted by contacting leading lights of his parent party to give the impression that staging a go back to that party was still not off his agenda. That led Rajiv Gandhi to deny that he objected to certain names for the Cabinet and said the Cabinet formation was Shekhar’s prerogative.
It will thus be difficult for Rajiv Gandhi to seek the transfer or removal of certain State Governors, and diplomats acceptable to the Prime Minister but not liked by Gandhi.
However, in certain areas the Prime Minister will have to accommodate the views and interests of Gandhi and his Congress (I). Gandhi has already spelled out these areas: law and order, the problem of social tensions and steps on the economic front.
It is well known that Gandhi considers all popular movements such as in Punjab, Kashmir, Assam etc. as the problems of law and order. He would not allow Shekhar any initiative which goes against the Congress (I) policy of sternly putting down the regional movements. In other words, the Prime Minister will be hard put to in transferring certain officers from Punjab notorious for excesses against the Sikhs. In any case, new, even more stern officers will be brought in where transfers become inevitable,
On the “social tensions” front the Congress (I) would like the Prime Minister to tone down if not altogether bury the Mandal phenomenon so that the lower castes and Dalits do not support the V.P. Singh led opposition in any future election. In short Gandhi would like Shekhar to create such confusion as to take the caste issue off the political agenda. On this issue. Even the President of India, himself a Brahamin, is reported to be one with Gandhi R. Venkataraman is said to be of the view that holding elections with Mandal as a hot issue would lead to poll violence. As such election should not be held “for about two years”. In other words, upper castes would not allow election to be held until the Mandal issue is effectively buried. Punjab is about to be repeated in the remaining part of the country. The upper castes are not willing to surrender political power to any alternative setup comprising Dalits and lowers castes.
But the President, the Prime Minister and the Congress (I) are obviously taking certain things for granted. As things are no government could defer the spirit of the Mandal reports.
They appear to be convinced that the Mandal phenomenon had been the doing of the previous government. Actually, most observers are agreed that it was the backward communities who forced V.P. Singh to give them their due denied to them for centuries.
The U.P. Chief Minister, Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, committed the mistake of molding his political course as he desired. He first mounted the Mandal tiger and later aided with a set up backed by the Congress (I), a counter Mandal phenomenon. He is now up against the reality. He has been quick to correct the social course by notifying 27% reservation for backward castes in the U.P. government services even while still clinging to the antiMandal politics.
On the third issue namely the economic measures, the Congress (1) would like to strengthen the bureaucratic capitalist class in India notwithstanding the fact that Congress (1)’s political gurus, the Soviet Communist Party, have been saying goodbye to the kind of bureaucratic capitalism. Both Shekhar and Gandhi appear to be oblivious of the growth of a significant central action by the bureaucratic capitalist class in India and the new, resurgent, middle investor class. The latter class is mostly Hindu, although this class is dead set against Mandal, it does not ‘want bureaucratic capitalists to be strengthened either.
In these pulls and counter pulls the Prime Minister’s task will be one of tight rope walking. In any case he could not go far in carrying out the difficult exercise. His problems will be further compounded by Hindu fundamentalists and their Ram temple. This is the Hindu fundamentalist strategy both against the V.P. Singh led Opposition and the Congress (I) to force and face an early poll, that Rajiv Gandhi is exonerated from the charge of frauds in the purchase of Bofors guns. Shekhar, too, has shown his willingness to forget about Rs 68 crore pocketed by Gandhi in the deal as is being mentioned in the media.
In short, the Congress (I) would like to run the government from the backdoor with a pliant bureaucracy dictating the phase to follow Congress (I)’s policies even while allowing the P.M. to employ his own style.
Article extracted from this publication >> November 23, 1990
