Exactly two weeks before Quebec holds its long-awaited referendum on its future, many Canadians fear that the country will be divided.
Although the polls continue to show the federalist (“no”) side ahead, the secessionist (“yes”) side has narrowed the lead in recent weeks. Led by populist Lucien Bouchard, it is appealing to the pride and nationalism of 5 million Quebecois- about 80 percent of them French-speaking who are eligible to vote on October 30.
The only question on the ballot will ask whether the voters favor Quebec becoming a sovereign country, after the submission of a proposal to the federal government to form an economic and political union that Chretien already has said is unacceptable.
The federalist camp charges that the question is misleading because it allows Quebecois-who, according to polls, have always said they reject outright independence with no ties to Canada-to believe that voting yes will not mean full independence. To reassure anxious voters, secessionists have said that an independent Quebec would retain Canadian passports
and the Canadian dollar.
Chretien, however, emphasizes that a vote for sovereignty will be a one-way ticket out of the federation. “How brazen of them,” former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney said last week of the secessionists’ promise that monetary links and the right of free movement automatically will be maintained.
Bouchard himself speaks unmistakably about full sovereignty for Quebec. “We are a real country. On October 30, we will give ourselves a birth certificate,” he told a boisterous rally in Sorel, 78 miles east of Montreal, last week.
The secessionists hope that a surge public enthusiasm for Bouchard, leader of the separatist Bloc Quebecois party (the federal arm of Parizeau’s Parti Quebecois) in the federal parliament in Ottawa, will put them over the top.
Speculating on the vote has become a cottage industry in Canada. Here are four of the most commonly discussed scenarios:
The federalists win decisively. The question is defeated 60 percent to 40 per- cent, the same margin by which secession was defeated in the last referendum in 1980. Parizeau, having devoted his entire career to the cause of independence for Quebec, resigns in despair. With the Bloc Quebecois clout in Ottawa shattered, Bouchard returns to Quebec City, the provincial capital, to succeed Parizeau.
The question is settled, at least for a generation. Finally, Canada is able to dispel the chronic questions of its unity. As prominent financier Conrad Black put it: “The political insecurity that has so tortured Canada throughout its history could swiftly recede, leaving Canada a far more vigorous and self-possessed nation.”
The federalists win narrowly. The vote is far closer, say 52 percent to 48 percent. The secessionists call this “a moral victory.”They argue that a majority of French- speaking Quebecois have voted to leave Canada, but their will has been thwarted by non-French minorities, who are overwhelmingly federalist.
The Parti Quebecois, which has a man- date to govern until 1999, decides to wait for the right moment and call another referendum.
The secessionists win narrowly. The slender margin of victory does not necessarily mean that Quebec separates. The federal government says that a close vote on a vague question is not authoritative enough to break up a country, with all the dislocation that would ensue. Ottawa flatly refuses to negotiate with Quebec, claiming the latter has no mandate from the rest of Canada to proceed with secession. It holds its own referendum, asking, quite simply, if Quebecois favor an independent Quebec.
The separatist provincial government, in response, issues a unilateral declaration of independence. There is sporadic violence in Quebec, and Ottawa decides to send troops to Quebec to restore order- as it did 25 years ago during “the October Crisis,” when terrorists of the separatist Quebec Liberation Front murdered the province’s labor minister and kidnapped a British official,
Quebec takes its case to the international community. It seeks recognition first from France and other francophone nations, as well as from the United States. It also seeks entry to NATO and the Organization of American States.
The separatists win decisively. Quebec wants negotiations on a common Parliament and an economic union, but Canada will discuss only the terms of divorce: Quebec’s share of the country’s $550 billion national debt, the disposition of federal lands and property in Quebec, the drawing of future borders. Canada demands the return of lands given to Quebec after Confederation in 1867 and protection of the rights of almost 800,000 English-speaking Quebecois.
It repeals legislation allowing Canadians to hold dual citizenship, stripping Quebecois of their Canadian passport, and vetoes Quebec’s admission to the North American Free Trade Agreement. Angry Canadians boycott products from Quebec.
For its part, Quebec refuses to pay its share of the debt and continues to use the Canadian dollar, even though it has no control over monetary policy.
Eventually, Quebec is recognized by other countries. It enters the United Nations, seated between Qatar and Rwanda. It is one of the world’s largest countries and among its most indebted. Meanwhile, indigenous tribes and English Quebecois declare that they cannot live under such a government and demand that the par Quebec where they form a majority be annexed to Canada.
And, if Quebec goes, what of the rest of Canada?
Inviting comparison with former East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), the four Mari- time Provinces on the Atlantic would be cu- physically from the rest of country which would lose a of its people, resources and better part of its cultural distinctiveness. Still, the truncated country-its population shrunk to 22 million from 29 million-probably would decide to carry on, as its industrial and agricultural base outside Quebec would continue to qualify it as an international player. Another, more remote, possibility is that the provinces would not be able to agree on the shape of a federation after Quebec and would divide into nine princely states. They would form a loose union, like the Commonwealth of Independent States in the former Soviet Union.
Although the separatists trailed significantly in the polls for months, the recent decision to let Bouchard carry the campaign has cut the margin to five to 10 percentage points.
Article extracted from this publication >> October 20, 1995
