NEW DELHI: A rapidly evolving political scenario, am unpredictably unfolding corruption scandal and increasingly deteriorating electoral prospects of his party have forced a beleaguered Prime Minister P.V Narasimha Rao 10 consider advancing the date of the general election by a couple of weeks:

Even as his crisis managers are said to be advising that the election to the Lok Sabha should be put off as far as possible, Mr. Rao is understood to be toying with the idea of ad ven it is by only a few weeks to pre-empt further worsening of this present.

Mr. Rao has been widely perceived {0 be a political chess player, one thinks out his strategy several steps bead before making his move, These days, however, the Prime Minister no longer plans further than the coming 10 10 15 days, according to highly placed government sources. tis thus not surprising that the Government has been paralyzed ever since the hawala scandal has taken center stage in national politics.

One major reason that the Prime Minister feels increasingly cornered with each passing day is the hawala scandal, Allegations by suspected hawala dealer $.K, Jain, that Mr. Rao received Rs 355 crore, have only served to deepen the Prime Minister’s crisis.

Whatever the merits of the allegations, Mr. Rao has already been hurt politically, with Opposition parties demanding that he step down to allow ‘an imperial inquiry into the charges (the Prime Minister is directly in charge of the CBI), Though the Opposition demand can be ignored, as far as he is concerned, it is the brewing scandal that is of grave concern.

The charge sheeting of three Cabinet Ministers and talk of more charge sheets in the offing have shaken the party. However, although the rank and file reportedly feels that Prime Minister has taken the party on a suicidal course, years of ingrained loyalty to the high command has prevented any precipitate action against the party president. The Prime Minister, however, has taken no chances, and to ensure that dissidence is kept at bay, he has ignored demands for convening the Congress Working Committee, where anger against him is certain to erupt, if nothing else. ‘The Prime Minister’s isolation is not merely political, The Government has, through its intelligence agencies, reportedly assessed his party’s prospects as bleak: there is a strong possibility that the Congress will emerge the third largest group, when the dust of the elections settles.

Even the establishment seems to be deserting him: a staunchly reestablishment daily newspaper recently surprised everyone by launching a frontal attack on the Prime Minister, when it ran an news item on the potentially embarrassing St Kitts forgery case, (see page 2 of WSN) Things do not appear to be improving, and the Prime Minister is now said to be anxiously awaiting the outcome of the Supreme Court’s next hearing of the Central Bureau of Investigation’s (CBI) progress on the hawala case, scheduled for February 22. ‘The apex court has not only told the CBI to probe all allegations, no matter how high an office held by the accused, but it also wants to know if an inquiry into an allegation has been closed, with all the facts placed before it. Some are seeking to dismiss the allegations against Mr. Rao; the Supreme Court may take a different view and make an order accordingly.

Given the resources at his disposal, the Prime Minister is certain to get an indication of what is in store for him in the days before the next hearing in the remote event of the court ordering the probe against him to move ahead, the Prime Minister would come under greater pressure to step down. Since stepping down, citharas president of the Congress party or as head of Government would be political suicide for him, there is a possibility that Mr. Rao may advance the election timeframe. Government sources Say they are preparing for any change in the poll dates. Although such a move would stave off further danger to Mr. Rao’s post. It would not make much difference to the Government, as the elections, instead of being held in mid-April. Would be advanced to March end, a mere two weeks early.

Article extracted from this publication >>  February 7, 1996