NEW DELHI: The military Junta in Pakistan will continue to dominate the scene and any efforts by the civilian govt to rationalize the defence budget will not be acceptable to the military according to defence analyst.
The military having been in power for more than 25 years in Pakistan’s chequred history was finding itself uncomfortable under civilian rule according to Sreedhar defence analyst at the institute for defence studies and analyses.
However Sharif learning from the fall of Benazir Bhutto and the role of the army has tried to do a balancing act in its first budget in which a sum of Rs 70956 million has been allocated to the defence forces which is 11.58% more over the budget allocation in 1990-91.
The defence component in Pakistan’s budget assumes significance on three counts Sreedhar said. Firstly the military is not reconciled to it being outsmarted by Nawaz Sharif on various issues and his efforts to consolidate his position.
Another significant factor is the suspension of U.S military and economic aid to Pakistan and it has already started affecting the military equipment with the three services. Pakistan has been forced to ground most of its F-16 planes due to this embargo on military supplies spares and equipment he said.
The third factor was pressure from the international monetary fund (IMF)to prune its defence budget.
Unlike India Pakistan never publishes detailed defence services estimates he said. There is just a one line reference to defence in the federal budget under the expenditure account Pakistan has resorted to this method from the late 1950’s he said.
Analyzing Pakistan’s defence budget over the years Sreedhar said during general Ayub Khan’s rule from 1958-69 two significant changes took place in the Pakistani policy.
Firstly the military firmly established a military-bureaucracy nexus and developed some vested interests for this group in the continuance of an authoritarian regime in Islamabad. Secondly Pakistan’s defence allocations got entangled with U.S. charity.
Gen. Yahiya Khan who assumed office in 1969 also tried to please the armed forces by increasing defence budget allocations during his tenure which lasted till 1971.
The liberation of East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) dealt a blow to the image of the military in Pakistan. After its defeat in the Indo-Pak war of 1971 by handing over power to the civilian authority the military did what can be described as the damage limitation operation to its predominant position in the Pakistani polity he said.
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto however realized the strength of Pakistani armed forces and did not want to antagonize them. To restore the morale of the defeated forces Bhutto quickly identified new sources of supply of arms and equipment and laid the foundation for Pakistan’s clandestine nuclear program.
The defence expenditure during the last year of Bhutto had more than doubled as compared to the last year of Gen Yahiya Khan Speed har said. In 1976-77 defence expenditure stood at Rs 8.1 billion compared to Rs 3.7 billion in 1971-72.
In 1977 the armed forces staged a comeback under the leadership of Gen Zia-Ul Haq after a coup. Two significant developments took place during Gen Zia’s tenure that influenced Pakistan’s defence expenditure he said.
The first was the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 and the subsequent influx of Afghan refugees that enabled him to project Pakistan as a frontline state vulnerable to Soviet invasion.
This coincided with the U.S. policy of bleeding the Soviets in Afghanistan he said Once this convergence of U.S.-Pak interests took place the U.S resumed military and economic aid to Pakistan on a large scale.
Pakistan received funds from other nations such as China and Saudi Arabia and the aid was around Rs 6 to 7 billion annually. This considerably enhanced the maneuverability of Pakistan’s administration however all this aid was not mentioned in the defence budget allocations he said.
During Gen Zia’s rule Pakistan’s defence budget more than doubled. It increased from Rs 10302 million in 1978-79 to Rs 23,224 million in 1982-83: and by 1987-88 it touched Rs 47105 million and in 198889 it reached Rs 48.9 billion he said. The death of Gen Zia in 1988 and the subsequent elections brought back civilian rule in Pakistan in December 1988. After assuming charge Benazir Bhutto thought of clipping the wings of the military by a tight control of the defence budget.
Sreedhar said if Benazir could improve the security environment along with pruning the defence budget she might have been able to reduce the pro dominance of the military. This was reflected in the budget presented to the national assembly in 199091 which gave a mere 2.68% rise to the defence sector
However two developments in the international system had an immediate bearing on the position of the military in Pakistan the end of the cold war and the Soviet Union’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.
These developments in a way reduced the Pakistan donors’ interest and also robbed the Pakistani military of the chance to fleece the west on the pretext of Soviet presence in their borders.
Article extracted from this publication >> August 16, 1991
