In 1989 the number of registered job seekers educated and uneducated was 5, 95, 785. Of these 52.3 per cent were educated. In districts of Roparand Sanjrur, the share of the educated is more than 60 per cent whereas in Gurdaspur, Kapurthala, Bhatinda and Jalandhar, it is below $0 per cent. In the remaining districts the percentage of the educated is not significantly different from the state average except Amritsar where it is $7.53 per cent.
To examine the extent of unemployment district wise, the rate of unemployment for each district has been computed by taking the ratio of registered unemployed to the total workers in the district. It is a very rough indicator of the extent of unemployment as the working population data used are not up-to-date. However, these unemployment rates can be used to determine the relative positions of different districts. Gurdaspur suffers from highest rate of unemployment (19.72 percent) followed Kapurthala (14.90 per cent), Patiala (12.4 per cent), Ropar (12.37 per cent), Hoshiarpur (11.80 per cent, Bhatinda (11.27 percent), Jalandhar (11.20 per cent); Faridkot (9.95 per cent), Ferozepur (9.78 per cent), Amritsar (9.74 per cent), Ludhiana (9.49 per cent) ‘and Sangrur (6.16 per cent), For the educated unemployed, Ropar ranks at the top with an unemployment rate of 7,66 per cent, followed by Gurdaspur (7.74 per cent), Kapurthala (7,07 per cent), Hoshiarpur (6.21 per cent), Patiala (6.2 per cent) Bhatinda (5.61 per cent) Amritsar (5.60 per cent), Jalandhar (5.59 per cent), Ludhiana (5.26 per cent), Faridkot (4.69 per cent), Ferozepur (4.06 per cent) and Sangrur (3.70 per cent), The rate for the state is 6.2 per cent.
The net percentage decrease in total unemployed during 1889 was 1.86. However, decrease in uneducated unemployed ‘was 5.08 per cent, the number of educated ‘unemployed increased by 1.23 per cent.
Of the total educated unemployed 71.47 per cent were classified as nontechnical for the state as a whole, this percentage, however, varied from 60.42 per cent for Ropar to 76.97 per cent for Patiala among, the districts. The interesting revelation is that majority in the nontechnical category ‘were matriculates. For the state the percentage of matriculates in the nontechnical category was 64.47, and varied from 56.11 per cent for Ludhiana to 80.59 per cent for Faridkot district, in the three districts of Ropar, Sangrur and Bhatinda their share was also above 70 per cent. The matriculates as percentage of total educated unemployed and total unemployed were $1.1 and 24 respectively. They constituted about 3 per cent of the total working force in the state,
The analysis of data further shows that the number of registered unemployed matriculates increased by 4.47 percent, in 1989 whereas those in the technical category decreased by 6.08 percent. It is quite interesting to know that 40.6 percent of those classified as technical personnel were craftsmen, 47.3 percent teachers, 6 percent engineers (graduates as well as diploma holders) and 3.7 percent para medicals. The remaining were mainly agricultural graduates and non-allopathic doctors. The number of allopathic doctors (16) and veterinaries (2) was negligible, Almost 40 percent employed engineers had specialized in civil engineering. Of the graduates and post graduates in the non-technical category, 90.4 percent were in arts/commerce, The remaining belonged to service disciplines.
‘One can discern a clear pattern of unemployment in the state, first, the extent and nature of employment varies among districts. The unemployment situation in Gurdaspur, and to a slightly lesser extent in Kapurthala, Patiala and Hoshiarpur, is quite serious.
The majority of the educated unemployed belong to the non-technical category. The matriculates dominate in this category. The others in this category are products of general education usually of very poor quality. The unemployed science graduates and post graduates are not in large numbers. There are two possible explanations for this. First we do not produce them in large numbers in relation to total university/college output. Second, their training is rigorous and they can adjust to a number of different situations easily. In a society on the threshold of rapid industrialization a greater emphasis on science education should be a correct policy direction,
Just over 40 percent of the educated unemployed in the technical category are poorly trained craftsmen, A number of studies suggest that they are only marginally better than general matriculates in terms of useful skills.
In terms of numbers, the most important group in technical category is that of teachers. Here there has to be a clear cut policy of limiting admissions in accordance with societal needs. This will help in improving the quality of their training and in the long run create positive effect on the quality of school education. Unemployment among engineers is not as serious a problem as that faced by craftsmen and teachers, but civil engineers tend to suffer most. Again, the answer is to regulate admissions in accordance with social needs.
If we examine the data more closely, it becomes clear that the main cause of the unemployment problem is that the present agrarian economic structure of the state does not provide sufficient, remunerative productive employment opportunities. Although Punjab’s economy has experienced rapid growth and enjoys the highest per capita income among Indian states, structurally it is very backward. This is borne out by an examination of the sectorial distribution of net state domestic product.
The major source of growth has been the agriculture sector. It still dominates. Its share was 51.65 percent in 1966-67 which ‘went up to 58.09 percent in 197071 and came down gradually to 48, 91 percent in 1980-81. However, it started increasing again and was 52.79 percent in 198687. The share of the secondary sector was 17.06 percent in 196667 and has not changed much. It went up slightly but came down to 15.04 percent in 198586. It was 15.19 percent in 198687, the shares of registered manufacturing and UN registered manufacturing were 5.67 percent and 5.45 percent respectively in 1966-67. These figures have not changed significantly over the years. These were 5, 23 percent and 4.67 percent in 198687, Power generation dominates the secondary sector. In sum, the structural transformation of the economy has been very slow, it has shown even signs of some retrogression.
The present economic structure does not generate employment opportunities even for the uneducated and matriculates constituting 78,04 percent of the total unemployed. If we add to those with higher secondary/intermediate qualifications, the percentage goes up to 84.29. The unemployed teachers, graduates/post graduates in arts/commerce who are there mostly as a result of drift constitute 14.2 percent of the total unemployed. Many of them would have opted for employment if opportunities ‘were that at the earlier stages.
In any cases this is an area where some sort of regulation in admission and quality improvement measure have to be introduced. The remaining 1,06 percent unemployed are technical professionals who provide critical skills for development, As they are very expensive to train, their production should be regulated in accordance with societal needs. However, regulation of admissions will alter only the nature of unemployment and not the quantum.
With the increasing number of youngsters, with or without education, entering the labour market every year the unemployment problem in Punjab is likely to become even more acute than it is now. And we already know the concomitant social consequences. The only remedy is to bring about speedy structural transformation of the economy through modern industries. Only the modem medium and large scale industries with well-planned networks of ancillary units will provide sufficient number of well paid jobs directly and through the development of modem commerce, indirectly. With 57 percent of bank deposits in Punjab amounting to nearly Rs 6,000 crore being used outside the state, resource mobilization for rapid industrial development should not be a constraint.
The writer is Professor of economics, Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar.
Article extracted from this publication >> August 31, 1990
