NEW DELHI: Barely 18 months after electing the first hung parliament since Independence Indias 572 crore voters have been asked to make a. second choice in a slightly different political scenario.
The battle lines are still not clearly drawn but unlike 1989 when it was more of less a straight fight between Congresses-I and a fairly united opposition it looks like a multi-pronged war.
Major contenders for supremacy in the 543 seat Parliament are Congress-I National Front and Left Parties combine the BJP the Janata Dal (S) and a host of regional parties.
In 1989 while the Congress (I) was rejected by the north the electors routed the opposition including the DMK Telegu Desam and the Janata Dal thus making it the third time since 1952 that the voter opted for a change.
The Congress-I defeat in the last elections was its second worst defeat after 1977 losing 261 seats including 133 to the Janata Dal and 841to BJP. However the Congress-I gained as many as 28 seats in Andhra Pradesh from the Telugu Desam the main opposition party in the Lok Sabha after the 1984 polls and the “sympathy wave™ which saw the former secure its best win with a record 64.1% votes securing 415 seats.
Of the five-party alliance which made up the National Front the Janata Dal was the major gainer pushing up its tally to 144 seats. In fact all but eight of the 141 seats won by the party were at the expense of the Congress-I.
The National Front comprised the Janata Dal Telugu Desam Dravida i en (S) and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP)
The BJP which had just two seats after the 1984 polls increased its strength to 36 It lost one constituency in Andhra Pradesh to the Congress and wrested as many as 84 from it. The CPI and the CPI (M) were other parties which benefited.
The combined opposition comprising the National Front the BJP and the left parties gained most in the Hindi belt with Rajasthan accounting for a cent percent change as the Congress (I) lost all 28 Lok Sabha seats it won in 1984.
The performance was opposite in the southern belt of Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Kerala Tamil Nadu and the union territory of Pondicherry.
HARYANA: Seats: 10: Electorate: 9,697403 1989 Party Position:-INC-4 JD-6.
Barring 1977 and 1989 the state has seen Congress getting a majority of seats and in 1980 even with a vote percentage less than Lok Dal it took five seats Haryana may have a multi-cornered contest with parties stressing on issues like Mandal and state government performance. The late has opted for simultaneous assembly polls.
HIMACHAL PRADESH:-Seats: 4: Electorate: 3072926 1989 Party Position: BJP-3 INC-1
“A Congress stronghold the state voted against the party only twice in 1977 and 1989 when opposition united. BJP the ruling party in the state would face a stiff challenge from Congress (I) and Janata Dal in a triangular contest. Key issues include Mandal and reduction of support prices for apples while Mandir issue would figure in the Urban centers.
JAMMU and KASHMIR: -Seats:6 :Electorate:4155 297 (1989) 1989 Panty Position:INC-2 NC (F)-3 IND-1.
The Congress (I) and its ally the National Conference (F)swept the polls in 1989 virtually removing all other parties including the BJP and the
RAJASTHAN:-Seats:25: Electorate:26487246 1989 Party Position:BJP-13 JD-11 CPM-1.
This BIP-ruled state had voted Congress though barring 1957 1980 and 1984 the party had about 60% success rates. The Congress (I) the BJP and Janata Dal may be the three main aspirants on this occasion.
Major issues include price rise communal tension Mandir and Mandal commission report. In 1989 the key contest was between JD (S) president Devi Lal and former Lok Sabha speaker Balram Jakbarin Sikar with the former defeating the latter by a sizable margin.
MADHYA PRADESH:-Seats: 40: Electorate: 37699363 1989 Party Position: BJP-27 Cong (1)-8 JD-3 IND-1.
Another state where BP with JD support grabbed maximum seats in the last polls though a triangular fight between BJP JD and Congress (1) is likely now While Mandir and Mandal are key issues the performance of the BJP state government would also be a major factor:
In the past the Congress took most of the seats in all elections barring 1977 and its performance has been linked to the opposition unity index.
“U Pradesh:-Seats-85: Electorate: 60202885 1989 Party Position: JD 54INC-15 BIP-8 BSP-2 CPI-2 CPM-1 ABHMS-1 IND-2.
A state with a major chunk of seats Uttar Pradesh has been a Congress stronghold barring 1977 and 1989 when opposition unity was high the party secured maximum votes.
Major issues would be Mandal and Mandir though the state governments performance is a likely factor as assembly polls are also being held.
Cong-I BJP and Janata Dal are likely to be main contenders though the JD (S) is also a late starter
Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar and former premiers Rajiv Gandhi and V P Singh were elected from Ballia Amethi and Fatehpur.
ANDHRA PRADESH:-Seats: 42: Electorate: 42747862 1989 Panty Position: INC-39 TDP-2 Others-1.
A Congress (I) Bastion till 1984 Andhra Pradesh is likely to witness three-cornered contest between Congress ruling party in the state the Telugu Desam and BJP.
National issues like Mandal and Ayodhya and local ones like communal riots and increased Naxalism would be key issues. Veteran parliamentarian Prof N G Ranga (Cong-I) and Babri Masjid Action Committee Convenor Sultan Salahuddin Owaisi were returned from Guntur and Hyderabad in 1989.
KARNATAKA:-Seats: 28: Electorate: 28734583 1989 Party Position: INC-27 JD-1.
Contrary to the prevailing wends the state favored Congress in 1977 during the Janata wave and the Janata Party in 1984 following the assassination of Indira Gandhi and the resultant sympathy wave.
The Congress-I and the National From face a straight contest amidst issues like dismissal of Veerendra Patil as chief minister of the Congress (I)-ruled state by the party high command and increased corruption. Mandal and Mandir is also likely to play a major role in the state with distinct caste divisions.
KERALA:-Seats: 20: Electorate: 18924136 (1989) 1989 Party Position: INC-14 CPM-2 Others-4.
A Left Front-ruled static Kerala may see yet another direct battle between the Congresses-I led United Democratic Front and the CPM-Led Left Democratic Front.
Major issues in the state which also opted for simultaneous assembly polls include stability of both state and central governments and Mandir and Mandal.
Key constituencies are Vedakara Ottapalam and Kollam which elected K P Unnikrishnan (Cong-S) K R Narayanan and S Krishna Kumar (both Cong-I)-all former central ministers
TAMIL NADU:Seats:39 Electorate:39826409 1989 Party Position:INC-27 AIADMK-11 CPI-1.
The state has always seen alliances between Congress and the DMK or the AIADMK since 1967 After 1971 and 1977 when the DMK and AIADMK won on its own steam the Congress has aligned with one of them to take maximum votes.
With major issues like dismissal of the DMK state government its alleged support to Tamil militants and Mandal commission report the State would again witness a direct contest between Congress (I)-ADMK Alliance and the DMK-a constituent of the National Front.
ARUNACHAL PRADESH:-Seats:2:Blectorate:519229 1989 Party Position:INC-2.
Lok Sabha polls in 1989 were the first since Arunachal attained statehood and the Congress-I grabbed both the seats with over 50% votes. This time to a straight contest is likely between the Cong-I and the Peoples Party of Arunachal Pradesh (PPA).
ASSAM:Seats:14:Electorate: 11861357 Party Position: No elections held in 1989.
Till 1985 Congress performed exceptionally well taking most of the Lok Sabha seats while the Asom Gana Parishad-a constituent of the Janata Dal-led National Front-secured seven seats in the 1985 bye elections.
Following the dismissal of the AGP state government in November last year and imposition of Presidents Rule in the state the issues likely to figure this time are corruption army action in the state and secessionism by the ULFA
BIHAR:-Seats:54 Electorate:$2611076 1989 Party PositionJD31:Cong (I)-4 BIP-9 CPI-4CPM-1 Others-5.
A Congress-I bastion till 1977 the Jan. ta wave took all 52 seats while the Congress managed to wrest 30 seats in 1980 and the sympathy wave ensured its victory in 48 seats
The state is likely to witness a four-cornered contest between Cong-I JD BJP and JD(S) with Mandal and Mandir being the key issues. Union minister Subodh Kant (JD-S) and former minister Ram Vilas Paswan QD) were elected from Ranchi and Hajipur respectively
ORISSA:-Seats:21 Electorate:19797598 1989 Party PositionJD-17 Cong (1-3 CPM-1.
State Janata Dal supreme Biju Patnaiks Charisma and his governments performance would be on test on this occasion as Mandiris not a key issue though reservation is relatively important The contest here may be triangular with JD JD(S) and Congress (I) fighting for top honors.
Lok Sabha speaker Rabi Ray and Union Minister Bhakta Charan Das (D-S) were elected from Kendrapara and Kalahandi The Congress performed well in the state in 1971 1980 and 1984 but when JOU was high it failed as in 1977 and 1989.
NAGALAND:-Seats; Electorate: 14845 1989 Party Position: INC1. A mate which preferred regional party candidates for Lok Sabba changed its stance in 1984 and 1989 when Congress-I was preferred. Major issues include militant activities of the NSCN under-development and price rise. The contest is likely to be between Cong-I and the United Democratic Party.
SIKKIM:-Seats:1 -Blectorate:201239 1989 Party Position:SSP-1.
“The Sikkim Sangram Parishad led by the chief minister Mr Narbahadur Bhandari won the seat on all occasions except 1977 when the Congress won it uncontested. A straight contest is likely this time between Cong I and SSP though regular Cong-I candidate Dil Kumar Bhaqndan recently defected to the SSP.
TRIPURA:-Seats:2:Electorate:1558221 1989 Party Position:INC-2.
A Leftist stronghold Congress has performed reasonably well taking both seats in 1967 and again in 1989. The CPI-M lost out despite securing over 41% votes last time. Regional issues like refugee Exodus would come to forefront. Former central minister Santosh Mohan Deb (Cong I) won from Tripura west constituency last time.
WEST BENGAL:-Seats:42:Electorate:41350180 1989 Panty Position: CPM-27 Cong(I)-4 CPI-3 Others-8.
A Left Front Domain the state would face a direct fight between the Left Front and the Congress (I) both trying to focus on issues ranging from stable central government to an Anti-Congress alternative. Local issues take a back seat
Barring 1984 when Congress (I) got its highest vote percentage of 48.2 communists have steadily increased their strength. The state is also opting for assembly polis.
MAHARASHTRA:-Seats:48:Electorate:48664755 1989 Party Position; Cong(I)-28 BJP-10 JD-5 CPI-1 Others-1 IND-3.
Another state where Congress performance has been linked to the OU with « reduced vote percentage for the party in 1977 and 1989 though in the latter it bagged 28 seats. A BJP-Shiv Sena Alliance and the Congress show down likely with the JD as a smaller Albeit a third force. Stability Mandir Mandal and social change are likely to be key issues.
GOA:-Seats:2:Electorate:768073 1989 Party Position:INC-1 MGP-1. While the Congress performed well before GOA attained statehood the Maharashtrawadi Gorantak Party (MGP) has shared honors in both the assembly and L S polls A straight contest is likely this time too. GUIJARAT:Seats:26: Electorate:25906538 1989 Party Position:BJP12 JD-11 Cong (I)-3-
The BJP emerged secured most seats in 1989 though with support from JD in most seats A triangular fight between BJP JD and Congress (I) is likely though past records suggest that Congress has done well when opposition was disunited. Mandal and Mandir are likely to be key issues.
DELHI: Seats:7:Electorate:6028684 1989 Party Position:INC-2 JD1.
Though the BJP polled a good percentage of votes the capital city has elected Congress MPs in all polls barring 1967 1977 and 1989. Like most of the northern states index of opposition unity has been a key factor vis-a-vis Congress electoral fortunes. Mandal and Mandir may be key issues.
LAKSHADWEEP:-Seats:1 :Electorate:30713 1989 Party Position: INC1.
The smallest constituency in the country this union territory has voted PM Sayeed to parliament on all occasions since 1967. He first contested as an independent won on a Congress ticket in 1971 and as Congress (S) nominee in 1980 before returning to Congress-I.
PONDICHERRY :-Seats:1:Electorate:591043 1989 Party Position: INC-1.
Barring 1977 when DMK took the seat Congress has always emerged victorious though in the last elections it was given a tough fight by the DMK which polled 41.65% votes as against 50.47% by the Congress.
DAMAN and DIU:-Seats:1:Electorate:57285 1989 Party Position:IND1.
Tandel Devji Jogibhai defeated his nearest Congress (I) rival in the last elections-the first to be held since GOA attained statehood following the 1987 re-organisation
CHANDIGARH:-Seats:1 :Electorate:357067 1989Position-JD-1
The Union Territory has elected Congress in 1971 and 1984 Janata Party in 1977 and the erstwhile BJS in 1967. Union Minister Harmohan Dhawan (JD-S) won the seat with 42.05% votes though his opponent Jagan Nath Kaushal (Cong-I) had 40.21% votes in 1989
Dadra and Nagar Haveli:-Seats:1;Electorate:74956 1989 Party Position:IND-1.
Local issues and candidates fare better despite presence of national parties
Article extracted from this publication >> April 26, 1991
