NEW DELHI: The anticipation of a below average monsoon rainfall this year is being viewed will concern in the agricultural sector A large part of the country is already reeling under drought ex periencing an acute scarcity of drinking water and fodder. Paucity in the precipitation in the ensuing rainy season may aggravate the Situation It may also adversely affect kharif production prospects it is feared.
A shortfall of about eight per cent in the rainfall as indicated by the Indian meteorological department (IMD) may normally be deemed insignificant. But it becomes disquieting when viewed against the backdrop of a none too-satisfactory previous monsoon and the prevailing drought in the country’s important kharif belt comprising Maharashira Gujarat Madhva Pradesh Karnataka and Rajasthan. The bulk of the country’s coarse grain and oils output comes from this region. The country can hardly ill-afford any decline in food grain production at a time when the reserves are already down to a precariously low level necessitating grain imports to maintain the public distribution system.
The “quantitative” forecast issued by the IMD is considered of little avail for advance crop planning to mitigate the impact of possible weather aberrations. The main lesson agriculture policy planners can draw from it is that they should be prepared to face a difficult situation It does not help them conclude precisely what kind of preparation is needed
It is the distribution of rainfall and not so much the total precipitation during the season which is more important from the agricultural point of view farm experts fee] The IMD prediction does not indicate much about this aspect of the monsoon. The term “normal” as used by the meteorologists does not have the same meaning for farming. While up to 10% shortfall in the average precipitation falls within the meteorologically normal range a paucity of this order in a traditionally low rainfall area can play havoc with the crops they point out. Agricultural drought is different from meteorological drought.
Last year to the total rainfall during the south-west monsoon season was estimated at 91% of the long-term average and described by the IMD as “normal though on the lower side of it.” However this had resulted in a shortfall of five to six million tons in kharif grain production.
All that the policy planners can do under the situation is to be ready with several alternative crop plans for various possible contingencies. Such an approach can help only in partly reducing the impact of the weather aberrations on crops.
Article extracted from this publication >> June 12, 1992
