JALANDHAR: Baillelines are drawn in Next week’s election to the Jalandhar Lok Sabha election. This clear that Congress (I) candidate, Umrao Singh, will be preferred by an oven helming ma of upper caste Hindus. With Dalit movement gaining molum over the years in this convey as well, the upper caste lus are getting isolated from reduled and backward castes. AS such most Dalits will vote for either of the two factions of the Dalits in the field, the pro Congress(I) Hindu votes will not Rarercnaecas victory Imrao Singh despite the fact fet the upper caste Hinducon “trolled media has succeeded in ding up a certain euphona. Punjab’s premier daily, “The Tribune,” “with a strong proHindu pias, has already announced that ‘Umrao has almost won. But this may well prove to be an unprofessional surmise wishful thinking. Although most Hindus are likely vote for Umrao Singh rather ; B.J.P.’s Balramji Dass ‘andon, the latter will get support
R.S.S. family to further erode the support base of the Congress(I). The B.J.P, at one stage was toying with the idea of not fielding any candidate but that would have sent a wrong signal elsewhere. The party’s candidate therefore cannot take things easy and for the mere survival of the party’s image will have to strain hard to get respect able support. The constituency has @ Sizeable electorate drawn from Dalit communities. It is certainly far more than the Punjab average of 28%. But there are two claim ants to this electorate. One is Harbhajan Lakha belonging to the KanshiRam’sB,S.P.andthe other Devi Dass Nahar of the Republi can Party which originally built up the Dalit movement in the region. Since Dalits have been fighting for their own identity, they are likely to vote in strength for either of the now Dalit candidates and not for the Congress(I). It is, however, fairly certain that Congress(I) candidate on the one hand and the two Dalit candidates will get sizeable blocks of votes but not sufficient to ensure as sured victory for either of them.
There is considerable interest in the Sikh candidates’ capacity to makeamarkin the election. There are two candidates in the filed: Ajit Singh Bains and Kuldip Singh Vadala. Bains has the support of Mann Akali Dal and other small Sikh groups such as Babbar Akali Dal, Baba Akali Dal and Students Federation (MchtaChawla) and sundry other groups. On the other hand it is Vadala who is Badal Akali Dal’s candidate. The Badal Dal has been making strenuous efforts to reemerge as the once powerful Shiromani Akali Dal now that the militancy has con siderably weakened. The candidature of Vadala is viewed by the Badal Dal as a test of its recent efforts, His victory or at any rate his position as Number2 candidate will give a big fillip to the Badal group to push ahead with its program of reemerging as a decisive political identity, This will also weaken the Mann Dal in the long run. If, on the other hand, Bains wins or emerges as Number 2 candidate, it will give a boost to the Mann Dal to parade itself as the key factor in the Sikh politics. The basic calculations of the two groups in essence are more factional and organizational rather than political.
The common Sikh masses would have greatly appreciated had the main Sikh parties projected Indian repression of Sikhs as the main political issue in the election. By voting en block for a Sikh candidate on that particular issue, they could have sent a message to the world at large that the hue and cry of human rights violations by India has substance. The Mann group has undoubtedly tried to project this issue in the election by putting up Justice Bains as its candidate, Bains heads a group on human rights and has attained certain status on that basis. Unfortunately, the Badal group refuses to make the human rights issue as the key slogan. Instead, it is harping on certain demands that were once raised by the undivided Akali Dal. The party wants the world to be live that nothing whatsoever has happened during the past decade to necessitate any change in political posturing. The party’s leadership, in a way, is justified in its thinking. After all, how could it project the police repression as an election issue when senior leaders of the Badal Dal are provided with legions of forces to protect them. Badal’s own security apparatus is as strong as the Punjab chief minister’s. No wonder the party is not too keen to make an issue of human rights violations although as a clever man oeuvre it does mention in passing the “Congress atrocities” on the masses.
If the Sikhsare able those through the Akali Jeaders’ games and decide to polarize in favor of projecting the human rights issue against the Indian state, that will ensure sizeable strength forebrains to make the contest serious. There are, however, heavy odds against this. Sikhs do not have a media of their own; They have to depend on the Punjabi media which 1s politically close to the Badal Center tie-up proposals rather than the issue of human rights. The militants could have brought about changes in this media but they had no vision beyond forcing it to print their statements. The Mann Dal does not seem to command size able financial resources to feed the Bains campaign. On the other hand, Badal has tremendous support from business and industrial world and his party’s campaign is not handicapped for want of fi nances. Moreover, the Hindu media’s second choice after Congress (I) is the Badal Dal’s candidate.
Bains had greater prospects of emerging as a common Sikh candidate had he resisted the idea of aligning himself with one Sikh faction whatever its claims or slogans. After all, Mann’s style of functioning is still personalized and his organizational strength not sizeable. That would have attracted support from certain Dalit elements also and Kanshi Ram reportedly had promised his support to such a grouping.
In the light of this analysis nothing at this stage can be said with certainty as to who would win. At the mass level, there is great scope for political polarization on the police repression versus human rights. At least the Indian police is fully aware of this danger.
No wonder, it is firmly opposing and sabotaging the chances of Bain’s victory. Who else is sup porting it, is fairly clear.
Article extracted from this publication >> May 14, 1993
