NEW DELHI: The CBI on April 8, which are meant to be a sop to Muslim leadership unhappy with the Congress (I) after Ayodhya demolition, show that the Prime Minister, P.V.Narasimha Rao, is getting ready for an electoral battle, But he is likely to go in for a piecemeal exercise.

The Prime Minister has entrusted some of his senor colleagues to undertake an exercise to study the pros and cons of holding elections in Himachal Pradesh and possibly Rajasthan in June, The Congress (I) spokesman, V.N.Gadgil’s innocuous statement two days ago that elections may be held in one Or more states soon was a trial balloon to gauge the reaction to such a move.

It is not in the interest of the Narasimha Rao to hold elections in IP, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh together now of later.

Even though Rao’ has consolidated his position in the party and won the last round at Surajkund, the wars by no means over in the party. The next challenge to his authority could come at the time of elections to these state assemblies; Defeat of the Congress (I) could mean serious trouble for the prime minister.

The BJP can be expected to go to town on its demand for a mid-term poll and the dissidents in the party could raise the try that Rao is not fit to lead the party to the polls.

However, the prime minister may hope to control the damage by holding elections in phases, The Jabalpur judgment has come as a blessing in disguise for Rao. Elections in the state can legitimately be postponed till the Supreme Court has given its view on the High Court’s verdict which is expected to be challenged in the next couple of days. Ruling party circles expect the apex court to circumvent the question of the justiciability of Article 356 of the Constitution and clinche the issue instead by recommending polls in the state. However, the Supreme Court may take a few months to deliver its judgment. It is also possible that the matter may be referred to a larger bench.

As far as UP is concerned, it is a category by itself; the government is likely to argue that the conditions are not yet conducive for holding polls in the country’s largest state. However, the

Congress (I) appears to be waking up from its slumber as far as UP is concemed and the prime minister held a four hour meeting with some of his senior colleagues on how to revive the party in UP before he left for Thailand, It would like to rebuild its earlier vote bank of Brahmins, Muslims and scheduled castes though this is casier said than done. The Muslims are alicnated from the party and Muslim leadership made this clear to the prime minister at the meeting that the Muslim Personal Law Board leaders had with the prime minister earlier this week.

The government has also decided to grant a central university in the name of B.R.Ambedkar in UP in the hope of wooing the scheduled caste voters.

The raids by the CBI on RSS, VHP and Bajrang dal offices in different parts of the country are also calculated to take the wind out of Arjun Singh’s latest thrust against communal forces. The HRD minister who was sidelined at the Surajkund conclave has now hit the road to project himself as a leader who has mass following so that he can be the natural alternative if the prime minister fails on this very count.

Singh significantly made a beginning in UP, which accounts for one fifth of the AICC (D) delegates, who would naturally gravitate to any leader who draws crowd in the state.

And Arjun Singh drew good crowds in Partapgarh, where he addressed, a meeting last weekend and which is the home ground of Dinesh Singh who was incidentally not invited to the meeting. But he was well received by people lining up the way from Allahabad to Pratapgarh in an area which is Thakur and Muslim dominated and was obviously carefully chosen by the Madhya Pradesh leader for this reason.

Article extracted from this publication >>  April 16, 1993