NEW DELHI: The recent upheaval in Afghanistan has pushed Pakistan very close to realizing its much publicized military doctrine of strategic depth” which means better preparedness in case of a war with India according to defence reports requested by Pravesh Sahni in Times of India.
Three recent events in Afghanistan deserve attention. The most significant of these is the request made by the Afghan defence minister Ahmad Shah Massoud to the Pakistan army to restructure the ethnically-divided Afghan militia into a federal army.
Secondly the Afghan interim government headed by Prof. Sibghatullah Mojaddedi has invited Pakistani advisers to assist in the restoration of the civilian infrastructure in Kabul.
And thirdly after dumping its protégé Gulbuddin Hekmatyar Islamabad has expediently joined hands with Massoud in calling for the elevation of Burhanuddin Rabbanias president of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan when Prof.Mojaddedi’s term expires in June. Although the latter has expressed his desire to continue as interim president for two years Massoud is reportedly opposed to the idea. And Massoud a Tadjik calls the shots in Kabul.
Though Tadjiks account for only 30% of the Afghan population they can boast of the most disciplined militia with is Political mentor Rabbani heading the civilian government at Kabul. Massond is well-placed to blunt the call of his arch-rival Gulbuddin Hekmatyar against a minority community holding power in Kabul. Moreover his recent truce with Hekmatyar is also based on some assurance for a larger role to the latter’s supporters in the new government
Meanwhile Massoud has been consolidating his position. In Afghanistan whoever militarily controls Kabul runs the government irrespective of his clout in the 21 provinces of the country. It is therefore important for Massoud to restructure his militia which is largely armed with light weapons into a federal army for the defence of Kabul. A second force likely to be raised for the defence of the provinces will comprise various ethnic groups
For training the federal army in the use of heavy weapons Massoud has sought the professional assistance of the Pakistan army. It is likely to train the federal forces in the handling of heavy weapons communications and tactical maneuver’s.
These military inroads by Islamabad into Kabul reflect the deft retrieval of a hopeless political situation resulting from the unsuccessful use of the Hekmatyai card for 13 years.
Ironically India which has similar weapons as the Afghan army as both countries got them from the erstwhile Soviet Union was better suited to assist the Afghan federal forces in their consolidation. Most of the weapons Systems with the Pakistan army are of Chinese origin copied from the original Soviet weaponry.
If India has missed this opportunity in Afghanistan it is because New Delhi traditionally deals only at government levels whereas Pakistan quickly grasped the realistic and backed the winning forces. This is likely to bring at least three benefits to Pakistan. First Islamabad is now very close to realizing its “strategic depth” doctrine as announced by the previous army chief Gen Mirza Aslam Beg. The doctrine has two aspects. It implies that as Pakistan lacks geographical depth it may keep at best some aircraft in friendly Afghanistan in case of a war on its eastern front Land forces really need no depth
The bigger military advantage however will be that its forces currently deployed on the Afghan border are available as reserves on the eastern front with India. These include two divisions (7 and 9 division having about 25000 troops) with 11 corps in Peshawar and probably a division (nearly 12000 troops) from the 12 corps at Quetta. These forces form the “strategic reserves” for the Pakistan general headquarters.
Secondly with both Massoud and Prof. Mojaddedi having declared that the people of Kashmir must enjoy the right to self-determination the coming days do not augur well for India. There are already reports that at least 500 Afghan nationals are in the Kashmir valley. Instead of the traditional routes: through the Line of Control and the International border a better bet for Pakistani infiltration into the Valley could be the difficult” routes north of the Indus through Pak-occupied Kashmir. A Pak-Afghan nexus can create unprecedented problems for the security forces in the Valley.
Thirdly if Pakistan can still keep Hekmatyar on a tight leash by cutting weapons and logistics supplies it stands a good chance of averting a much dreaded Pakhtun movement on its border.
Article extracted from this publication >> June 12, 1992
