A larger share of the Soviet Union’s economic and arms largesse and stronger Soviet support o India in its self-created festering feuds with its neighbours arc some of the expectations New Delhi attaches to Soviet leader Mr. Mikhail Gorbachev’s state it to India from November 25

In return, Moscow would expect India to reaffirm its fealty to its Soviet ties, support Mr. Gorbachev’s opposition to President Reagan’s Star War programme and furnish a more than nodding approval of the 7yearlong Soviet grab of Afghanistan.

A high powered Indian team, led by its Foreign Secretary, spent many days in Moscow earlier this month to work out the details of the Gorbachev visit to India and the agenda for the Indo Soviet summit talks in New Delhi.

* The Soviet authorities, it appears, are apprehensive over the state of security arrangements in India for their leader’s tour. The elite commando unit and the 1500 police sleuths, who protect Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, do not enjoy a high reputation amongst the diplomats in New Delhi. The fact that 250 policemen with tracker dogs could not initially detect his assailant on October 2 in a cluster of bushes at Rajghat in New Delhi even after having combed it for four and half hours before he passed that way is an awful reflection on their competence and reliability. Prime Minister Gandhi has to wear a bulletproof vest in public and he rides in a bulletproof car. Perhaps, Mr. Gorbachey may have to follow suit in India.

A high ranking Soviet office Mr. Konstantin Katushyey has been in New Delhi since October 20 to finalise with Indian officials the package of economic aid for India which Mr. Gobachev is likely to announce during his visit. Mr, Katushyey is the Chairman of the Soviet Committee for External Relation’s and has been active in promoting Russia’s economic ties ‘with India

EXPERIENCE

Having obtained $4.5 billion in aid from the West through the World Bank’s Aid-i-to-India Consortium for the fiscal year 1986-87 the Indian Government is keen to get more aid from Moscow. The art of copiously milking the two superpowers at the same time is ‘one in which New Delhi’s rulers re-experienced since the Nehru era.

Since the early 1960’s the Soviet Union has pumped billions of troubles in economic and military. aid to India, Seventeen month ago, the Soviets gave India a billion roubles (about $.billion) economic aid. This does not include the huge quantities of military hardware India imports front the USSR on concessional term and the exact cost of which i never disclosed in New Delhi or Moscow.

Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi plagued by India’s economic ills i reported to be seeking a large increase in the quantum of Soviet aid to India, Although New Delhi claims an economic growth rate of more than four percent for 1985 inflation has surged to whopping 8.5 per cent. India’s trade deficit this year will soar to more than$ 7 billion. India’s foreign currency reserves have fallen and its exports have declined, giving it the low 42nd position amongst the world’s exporting nations.

More Soviet aid will help bolster the Indian economy and ease the economic and political’ pressures which are building up agains Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and which result in the periodic reshuffling of his cabinet and the frequent sacking of his state ministers. His Congress party rules in only 14 out of 23 states in India, Although he commands the support of 401 out of 508 members in the Indian Parliament, and the next Parliamentary polls are due in 1990, he has to bighting his regime’s image if his partisans are to win the state and local elections due in 1987.

DEVELOPMENTS

Mr. Gorbachev’s announcement of  at least two billion roubles in economic aid to India will immensely please Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and his money conscious compatriots, The Soviets may oblige with a lesser sum because of their own economic problems, the mounting demands Of the in client states and the bleeding sore of Afghanistan,

Amongst the major development projects which India wants the USSR to finance are an 840 MW thermal power station in Bihar, the construction of a long electricity transmission line. Moderation, of the steel works at Bhilai and Bokaro, the expansion of the coal mining industry and more technology and funds for ‘other Soviet built industries in India.

Last June, India and the Soviet Union signed a five year agreement for cooperation in science and technology. It covers joint ventures in the fields of renewable energy and energy conservation biotechnology new materials engineering plastics, alternate fuels for motor cars and elections.

One of the reasons for India’s present balance of payments problem is its arms buying spree and its frenzied militarisation. It is in the field of military collaboration that New Delhi has high hopes of obtaining more lethal weapons and military technology from the Soviets during the Gorbachev visit.

Some 40 MIG29 aircraft, which the Indians now tout as deadlier than the F16, are to be the latest Soviet addition to Indian burgeoning military arsenals and Mr. Gorbachev may be asked to give more of these warplanes to India, India has 35 ordnance factories, employing 157,000 workers which produce Rs. 30,000 million worth of military equipment and it wants to expand them with Soviet help, especially for making more armoured personnel carriers and tanks, India is importing big gas turbine engines from Moscow for two of its new frigates for the Indian Navy.

‘The Soviet Union is bolstering India’s navy by supplying it six “Kilo” class submarines. They have more efficient torpedo tubes and their powerful engines make Jess noise. Their electronic system, Indian experts say, is more advanced than any Soviet submarine sold to the Warsaw Pact countries, The first of these Kilo class submarines joined the Indian Navy two months ago after its crew had received extensive training in the Soviet Union, These new submarines will replace the Foxtrot class submarines India received from Rossia in the late 1960’s,

The Indian Air Force has been recently showing off its latest Soviet acquisition the long range Tlysuhin76 heavy transport aircraft which can carry 225 paratroopers in full battle gear and it has a range Of 4,000 kilometers. Using the latest computer technology this transport plane has versatile air dropping navigation and flight direction systems and it can take  from short runways also, The India Air Force has named it as the Gujral. Prime Minister is expected to ask Mr. Gorbachev for more of these planes.

India is importing squadron of _ MI26 heavy duty helicopters from the Soviet Union for inductor into the Indian Air Force early in 1987. This will improve the Indian Air Force’s operational Capability in extremely high altitudes such as the eastern Karakoram range, wherein les the Siachin glacier, Western Ladakh and the North East Frontier Agency facing China. Two to these helicopters are already flying with the Indian Air Force.

PREVIEW

The Indian military is Keen to secure Soviet help for the training ‘of Indian military personnel in electronic, chemical, biological and space warfare at the Indian Armoured Corps Centre in Ahmedabad, And the Indian press team ‘was recently given a preview of this training and research establishment when they saw the T55 tank simulator imported from the Soviet Union.

New Delhi’s military experts have also been showing interest in ‘obtaining from the Soviets the medium range surface to surface ‘$S21 missile system, Despite India’s vehement denials, Western intelligence agencies are convinced that the Indians are angling for it. The Soviets will be launching a remote sensing Indian satellite from their launching pads in Russia in the middle of next year. A team of Indian space experts discussed the project with their Soviet counterparts in Russia last month.

The likelihood of a thaw in Sino Soviet relations is one of New Delhi’s nagging worries. Reports of Soviet troop reduction along the border with China and ‘of high level Soviet officials to Beijing have raised eyebrows in New Delhi.

New Delhi wants the canvas of Indo Soviet cooperation in unclean research to be enlarged. The Soviets it is reported, have not met all the Indian demands in the atomic field. India is also critical of certain maps published in the U.S S.R. which do not fall in line with New Delhi’s cartographic depicline of the Sino Indian, border. China watchers in the Indian Foreign Office attributed the alleged increase in Chinese military activity in recent months along India’s North Eastern frontier (Atunchal Pradesh) to the easing of Soviet military pressure on the Sino Soviet frontier. The Soviet Vice President, Mr. S.B during his Indian tour last August, had to publicly assure his worried Indian hosts that “the improvement in Sino Soviet relations resulting directly in the reduction of Soviet troops on their borders will not spell any harm to India”. Mr. Gorbachev will be urged by New Delhi to reaffirm this assurance in with the Indo Soviet treaty of August 1971.

In return, the Soviets may ask New Delhi to oblige by making more troops deployment along its order with Pakistan and in Kashmir so that Moscow’s surrogate forces in Afghanistan can foment ‘more subversion in Pakistan’s vulnerable north western tribal belt. The Soviets obviously see not quick end to their costly 7yearwar in Afghanistan which has cost Moscow $7.5 billion and 50,000 casualties. It is the longest war whether Soviet troops have fought ‘outside their borders since the Red Revolution in Russia, seventy years ago. Moscow’ much publicised withdrawal of some 8,000 troops from Afghanistan was a cosmetic exercise with an eye on the Iceland, U.S Soviet summit and the impending Afghanistan debate in the UN General Assembly In effect, Afghanistan continues to be a captive of the Soviet army.

The recent American offers to supply military related technology to India and join in certain arms production ventures will be fully exploited by Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in his bargaining, with the Soviet leaders for more money and ‘weapons. His sensitivity to his Moscow connection can be gauged from the fact that whenever the Soviets want to talk to him in person his unscheduled plane detours to Moscow are quickly contrived. Last August after he attended a Commonwealth Conference in London, his plane was deflected to Moscow on its light from Prague to New Delhi so that Moscow’s top South Asian expert, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Kapitsa could have coffee with him at Moscow airport, Last year, he made a similar unscheduled dash to Moscow from Brussels after his meeting with President Reagan and other Western leaders in response to Moscow’s urgent summons. This shows how very important for India is the Indo Soviet nexus.

Article extracted from this publication >> November 28, 1986