Most Indian newspapers and mainstream public men have in recent weeks predicted an early stepped-up state pressure. No doubt several leading functionaries have been killed and the movement has been thrown into disarray. The Punjab police have issued statistics to indicate that the number of persons killed at the hands of militants has come down sharply in 1992. These figures may be broadly correct. Police chief K,P.S.Gill has said that the number of militants has been reduced to 68. Most of the surviving militants, he says. are no longer active. Another important factor responsible for the setback to the movement for Khalistan is the effective sealing of Indo-Pak border along Punjab resulting in shortage of fire power with the armed movement. While chief minister Beant Singh and the police chief Gill may understandably have vested interest in magnifying their achievements, there is litue doubt that the Sikh movement has been considerably weakened in recent months. The militant groups’ writ no longer runs in the state. The mere fact of reduced deaths in Punjab in itself may not provide a reliable indication of the collapse of the movement. Such a Conclusion presupposes all violence to be the handiwork of the Khalistan activists which may be wrong. It is well known that numerous unorganized groups had been indulging in stray violence in the state, Not all these groups were under the control of the militant movement. Many of the violent groups had the blessings of the Indian security agencies, These groups were promoted to infiltrate the Khalistan movement directly or to discredit it indirectly.
The current strength of the activities of the armed movement also may not be a good parameter of its real or potential strength. Was not the number of militants put at less than 40 by the Indian security agencies in 1982 when the movement was just as its infancy? The numbers game the state has been playing all these years projects the ugly fact that India is essentially controlled by the police. The Punjab problem is basically rooted in politics. The Indian state deliberately propagates it to be a problem of terrorism or of law and order. That is because India has no political answer to the problems in Punjab, Kashmir, Assam or in other states. The moment India admits these problems to be related to politics, it will be called upon to have dialogue with the armed movement leaders and find political solutions that will the end of the Indian state in its present form.
Therefore, it is in India’s own interest at this state that it strengthens itself military to confront the separatist movements rather than attempt political solutions. But this military approach 1o admittedly political issues has its own limitations. The weakening of the armed movement in Punjab does not depend on the strength of the Sikh armed groups alone, to the exclusion of other related factors. For instance, it will also have to be assessed whether India, on the contrary, is getting stronger vis-a-vis the armed movements in Punjab, Kashmir or elsewhere. It should be clearly understood that whatever the military might of the Indian state, the Indian society is far from cohesive. In fact, it is on the verge of complete disruption. More and more sociopolitical groups in the country are talking to militancy. The armed movement during early years of India’s freedom was limited to Telangana. Even while it was crushed, the armed movement spread later to the northeastern states of India, Now there is hardly any pant of India which could be regarded free from one or the other type of social or political violence. India’s armed forces have been constantly on their toes all these years. No wonder, a western diplomat observed recently that the Indian society is the most violent of all societies,
The current state of the Indian society does not show its stengun, On the other hand, a weak neighbor like Pakistan has been on the offensive rather than being on the defensive. This sea change position of Indo-Pak relations itself indicates the fragility of India’s standing as a political power of any significance. In addition, geopolitical changes in Asia beginning with the disintegration of the Soviet Union have enhanced India’s worries. Time, the U.S. has been giving an impression as if it had underwritten India’s unity and integrity, But such commitments by a Cistant country, howsoever powerful, do not add much. In the circumstances it is unwise to be cocksure about the black future of the movement for Khalistan. It should be remembered that the roots of the problem remain intact even while India may have gained superiority over the Sikh movement in military terms. The Khalistan movement cannot be viewed in isolation. The movement for liberation in Kashmir remains undaunted. The Tharkh and movement in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal have grown in Strength. The Naxalites movement in Andhra Pradesh too is getting sharper despite the arrest of one of its top leaders recently, Whatever the internal changes in Pakistan, that country’s basic attitude towards the Indian state is bound to remain unaltered, Even the Sikh movement may attempt to overcome its weaknesses. No wonder a senior Babbar Khalsa International leader, Bhai Kulwant Singh, acknowledged the need for carrying masses with the movement and transforming it into a democratic movement. Bhai Kulwant Singh made known his views while he was in the custody of the Indian police. That speaks for the morale of the Sikh movement as well.
Article extracted from this publication >> April 23, 1993
