A general election to the Punjab Assembly is expected to be held sometime early next year. The poll assumes importance due to a variety of reasons. A foretaste of the Sikh public opinion is provided by the recently concluded election to the general house of the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee. The Akali Dal (Badal) swept the poll winning 150 seats in the house. In the Assembly election, non-Sikhs, too, will vote. In the Assembly electorate, Sikhs from about 56 percent. Dissident Sikhs like Nirankaeis, Radhasoamis, Namdhanis, etc. claim nearly 6 percent votes leaving 50 percent share for the Sikh community. Almost 27 percent voters are Dalits. The upper caste Hindus are 14 percent strong. Smaller communities like Christians and Muslims have a following of about 2 percent and 1 percent respectively. It can be assumed on the S.G.P.C. poll results that the Badal faction could claim almost 25 percent of the total Punjab Assembly electorate as its primary vote bank. With its tie-up with B.J.P. now assured, the Badal backed combination could claim another 56 percent votes as B.J.P’s contribution, the two parties together could have a ‘support base of about 3032 percent I votes. The Congress Party is trying.to work not an understanding with the B.S.P. The Congress party’s vote bank constitutes mainly of upper caste Hindus while the B.S.P. could reasonably count on a majority of Dalits. Assuming these strengths to be 1520 percent and 810 percent respectively, the two parties could jointly corner a vote bank of about 2527 percent. Efforts are on to cobble together another front comprising non Badal Sikh groups and the smaller and leftist parties. If successful, these groups together could launch on a 2025 percent support base. In the light of the above discussion and assumptions, the results will depend on how the three groupings mobilize the remaining about 20 percent votes. It is evident that the non Badal Sikh led group will have to work out an understanding at least with Kashi Ram’s B.S.P. at the local level to pose a really effective challenge to the Badal B.J.P. alliance. If the group is unable to arrange such local understanding, it will not be able to make a mark in terms of seats. Much will depend on whether the “third, secular front” is in a position to project issues that catch the attention of the people at the grass roots level. Badal has almost completely given up its own traditional political program revolving round the Anandpur Sabih resolution. The Akali leader is blinded by his desire to enlist support of Hindus and is willing to go to any extent to appease the B.J.P. following.
The non Badal sections must project the autonomy issue for Punjab even if it is within the framework of Indian unity. In addition, they should pledge themselves to win for Punjab its right to the three rivers of the state as well as the sources of all hydroelectric projects. Badal is making wild promises of free electricity and water for farmers. He should know that such a promise is too no practical to be of any worth. In any case, the central government will come down heavily on the promise and will put its foot down. In that case, Badal will be content to accuse Delhi of scuttling his promise. Badal is not interested in providing genuine relief to the farmers of Punjab presumable because he is in no position to hurt its electoral partner in Haryana and Rajasthan. He is unwilling to pursue the traditional Punjab demand that it should have complete control of hydroelectric projects now being managed by the Indian central government to protect the interests of Haryana and Rajasthan. He is also not interested in stopping the supply of water of Punjab Rivers illegally being transferred to the two neighboring states. The Akali Dal (B) is too power oriented to think of seeking and working for federal restructuring of the country. Of course, on all these points, even the leftist parties will be reluctant to make a common cause with the non Badal Sikh groups. The dilemma will have to be resolved.
Article extracted from this publication >> October 30, 1996
