It is now more or less clear that India is set to enact some sort of election drama in Kashmir. Everybody from the military governor of Kashmir to the union home minister S.B. Chavan is talking of holding the election before the current extended term of the State Assembly ends on January 16, 1996, It is also evident that the three member central election commission, too, will end its ambiguity and go with the election process, Earlier, chief election commissioner, T.N. Seshan, had reservations about holding an early election. He was influenced not so much by the objective situation in the valley as by his political affinity with the Bhartiya Janata Party which wants the present military campaign against the people of Kashmir to continue until all freedom loving elements are effectively silenced, The other two election commissioners appear inclined to support the Indian central government’s time schedule.

India’s game plan seems to be to install a pro-Congress (I) minority government in the state since it is reasonably assured of a boycott by most Kashmiri political groups. The difficulty was that traditionally the BJP has had an upper hand in the Jammu region where there is a sizeable Hindu population. The psychology of this section of India’s population is governed by only one consideration how ruthlessly a party suppresses Muslims, Sikhs or other nations. Since the BJP is in favor of a permanent military solution in Kashmir of the Hitlerite variety, the Hindus of Jammu have all along stood by the saffron party. However, there has been some change after Prime Minister Rao bared his Brahman fundamentalist credentials by first destroying the Babri Masjid and then the Charar-e-Shrief. In fact, the military operation at Charar-e-Shrief had only the Jammu Hindus in mind. The Congress (I) mood has become further upbeat after the developments in Gujarat.

One unsettling factor was the attitude of Dr. Farooq Abdullah who put the precondition of going back to the pre1953 constitutions status for Kashmir for the national conference’s participation in the ensuing poll. The Indian central government is neither willing nor in a position to offer any concessions to the people of Kashmir. The fact of the matter is that the political stand of the BJP and Congress (I) is similar, if not identical, on the issue of introducing any reforms in Kashmir The prime minister, however, is trying to be more tactful in handling the demands for greater autonomy than the BJP leaders. He first said he was willing to allow anything except for freedom to Kashmir to succeed from India. This created illusions in the minds of politicians like Farooq Abdullah who thought that the government might offer them greater autonomy. When Abdullah spelled out his demand for greater autonomy by asking for a return to the pre1953 constitutional status, the prime minister evaded the issue by stating that such an arrangement would be discussed with an elected government. Abdullah tried to persist with his demand. The Indian central government hit back by relaxing the security provided to the national conference leader. When that did not work, an effort was made to drive a wedge between Farooq Abdullah and his colleagues in the conference. That also failed and the prime minister tried to keep Abdullah on tenterhooks by asking him to wait for his return from his current overseas trip. Most probably the Indian prime minister will apprise leaders of western governments about his electoral intentions to seek their support to a minority government to be set up in Kashmir with or without the participation of national conference. Just as the western governments Supported India in respect of Punjab, they are likely to do the same for Kashmir. Nearly 100% Sikhs in Punjab had boycotted the 1992 Assembly election. Yet, the western ambassadors based in Delhi made a beeline to Chandigarh to meet Beant Singh to give him recognition. Beant Singh’s killing made no difference to the USA, and its envoy in Delhi met new chief minister H.S. Brar to extend his government’s recognition to the new government. This could be said of the West’s attitude towards any government to be set up in Kashmir also. Therefore Rao is likely to give his green signal to the election commission to go ahead with the election sometime in early January. In the light of the above discussion, Hurriyat Conference and other over ground political outfits in Kashmir will be ill advised to boycott the election. By boycotting the poll, these organizations will only help fulfill India’s game Plans, If they decided to join the electoral fray, India will think twice before holding the election. Even if it did, it will be with the army’s help to make the entire process as big a farce as it made in the past. The best course for the people of Kashmiris to try to capture political power and seek the world’s recognition to proceed ahead with their freedom movement and in a democratic manner.

 

Article extracted from this publication >>  October 27, 1995