Narasimha Rao has won a vote of confidence In Lok Sabha to retain office unless the two main opposition groups the BJP and the National Front-Left combine join hands on a money bill.  That appears improbable, 249 members, Including the Cong-I’s ally the AIADMK, voted for the govt while 117 members of the BJP voted against. The NF groups abstained from voting to bail out the govt. Rao needs about 15 more supporters in the Lok Sabha to give him a bare majority. Earlier, there was a tacit understanding between the NF-Left combine and the BJP on re-installing Rabi Ray as the Speaker. But the Cong-I leadership pulled off a coup by reaching an agreement with the BJP on the issue in lieu of its backing for deputy speakership for the BJP. Leaders of the left combine were understandably unhappy with this “understanding” and made a scathing attacks on the Cong-I govt for its economic policies. They said they could not support the motion of confidence in favor of the govt. But in the final analysis it was the N.F. Left front that saved the govt from collapse within a month of its being installed in power.

In a new political scenario, a minority govt does not seek a majority presumably because there are not many potential defectors to cross the hurdles created by the anti-defection law. Yet, the govt faces no threat to its existence in the near future. The reason is that the N.F-BJP cannot get together to form a govt owing to the fact that the former has the support base among Muslims and other minorities while the latter cannot give up its newly acquired gains from a Hindu fundamentalist stance. BJP’s interests would be better served if it keeps Muslims at arm’s length. At the same time, the N.F.-Left group cannot afford another election immediately.

The Rao ministry would like to project a more promising future to the country & it provided it had a working majority. It may go in for a mid-term election if it found functioning difficult with the present rather uneasy consensus rule. The three groups take their following for granted and would like to cut into the other’s support bases. While the BJP appears fairly satisfied with its fundamentalist stance as paying off, the other two have to be cautious in their relationship. Cong-I has already started talking in terms of supporting the Mandal issue as a mid-term election salve. The N.F.-Left front is playing a dangerous game which may cost it dearly. It cannot run with the hare and hunt with the hound. The combine to project itself as the main opposition group has to keep the govt propped .There appears to be a conflict of opinion in the combine on Strategy. A sizeable section wants to play the honest role of a dignified opposition ready not only to oppose but also to depose. The C.P.M and C.P.L are willing to oppose but are unwilling to depose. Leftist leaders such as Surjeet who have a say in formulating policies not only for the leftists but also for the N.F. are themselves a restless lot and have never won an election on their own. These leaders have been close to Prime Minister House for decades now. Being pro-establishment is second nature to particularly in relation to govt policies affecting minority regions like Punjab, Kashmir and Assam. Outwardly, these leftists are Stalinist in approach and depend heavily on the lower rungs of bureaucracy for sustenance. They would not like economic or political liberalization despite their pro-establishment disposition generally.

It will be a miracle if the uneasy Cong-I govt works for long. A new alignment of forces cannot be ruled out. Can NF. Be led by the left by the nose for long, especially with unscrupulous men as Surjeet at the helm? Will not the N.F. support to the Cong-I go against the public verdict in the former’s favor in important states like Bihar and U.P.? Will the N.F. continue to rely on the Strategy and tactics devised for it by the politically and morally bankrupt leftists? These are the root questions, answers to which will be forthcoming in the near future.

Article extracted from this publication >> July 19, 1991