Flowers always decorate Indian election campaigns. The heat sweetens their smell. Rajiv Gandhi his car bouncing towards a rally in Sriperumbudur in southern India was covered in garlands by hands that reached through the open window. He was determined to be accessible during the campaign in the past he had been accused of being too aloof. As they arrived he asked the local candidate with whom he was travelling what he should speak about. The candidate thought village development the most suitable subject. Gandhi walked towards a platform to begin his speech and was blown to pieces by a bomb along with 14 other people. The bomb may have been concealed in a bouquet of flowers.

Gandhi was killed on May 21st the day after the first of three days of voting in the general election. The electoral process stopped abruptly with the death of the man most likely to be prime minister. As the army was deployed to keep order the remaining two polling days were postponed until June 12th and 15th.

The expected violence broke out at the news of his death Supporters from his Congress Party burned buses cars and shops and attacked police stations. Police fired on protesters. At least eight people were killed and many more injured; but things could have been much worse. After his mother’s assassination in 1984some 3000 Sikhs were killed in Delhi.

Part of the reason there has been so little bloodshed is that nobody yet is certain who killed Mr Gandhi or why. The Tamil Tigers a separatist group in Sri Lanka are suspects since Mr Gandhi had complained that they were becoming a parallel government in Tamil Nadu. He used this as an excuse to force the Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar to sack the pro-Tiger state government earlier this year. One theory is that the bomb was detonated by remote control a method used to kill Ranjan Wijeratne Sri Lanka’s defence minister earlier this year. Another possibility is that a woman had a bomb wired to her and that it went off as she gave flowers to Mr Gandhi. The Tigers have denied responsibility; but they usually do for their atrocities.

Sikh militants killed Gandhi’s mother and had vowed to get him too. During this election campaign they have killed an average of 15 people each day in Punjab including eight candidates and have tried to kill two prominent candidates in Delhi. But Gandhi had plenty of enemies who would like to boast of his murder a group like the United Liberation Front of Assam separatist terrorists in the north-west of the country could equally well be the culprit. A caller to a newspaper claimed responsibility on behalf of the “Commander of the Combined Forces”; but this is reckoned to be a hoax.

It is clear though what killed him the current of political violence that runs from separatist terrorism to the small-time brutality of local hatreds. Around 200 people were killed in the six weeks of election campaigning and nearly 200 on the first day of voting. Over the past year some 2000 people have been killed in Hindu Muslim riots and about 150 in protests Illegal arms and bomb factories have been set up in many parts of northern India to fuel the conflicts.

The violence fills the void of modem India the institutions on which: independent India was proudly built no longer work The state is seen as corrupt and callous incapable of delivering justice or prosperity to the people. India’s old-style intellectuals who preach democracy secularism and Fabian socialism are falling silent belatedly aware of their impotence. Violence is both cause and effect of this failure.

Hoodlums hired by virtually all parties use arms and muscle at election time partly to capture polling booths party to repel attempted captures by rival parties Booth capturing is no longer seen as an outrage and has become a normal part of electoral strategy particularly in lawless Bihar In booths where the presiding officer reports a capture a second poll is made. But in many booths the presiding officer is in cahoots with the captures or may be too terrified of local toughs to protest. Hoodlums have longer arms than the law.

The current Indian election was spread over three days to enable security forces to move from one area to another but even so the chief ministers of Uttar Pradesh and Biharare reported to have used musclemen to capture booths in the first round of the election. The election commission has therefore countermanded voting in several seats and ordered a re-poll in more than 1000 booths. Never before has there been such open abuse of power by those who are supposed to set standards for the people.

The police and civil service are seen as oppressors and terrorists. The law courts are venal and can take decades to decide a case. The rule of law does not seem to work in settling people’s grievances. What seems to work is violence and money and all political parties are engaged in a mad race to maximize the use of both Indians believe that nothing much happens to bandits any more since so many of them have links with politicians and some have even become ministers.

The army long seen as standing above the fray dirtied its reputation in Kashmir earlier this year. Sent in to suppress separatism its behavior has only fostered the movement. Stories of torture murder and mass rape are widespread.

Indians’ disillusion with the state is compounded by the failure of successive governments to deliver economic growth. Politicians cling to the rhetoric of socialism while supporting a system which delivers great riches to few businessmen and profitable cuts to the civil servants and politicians who hand out licenses. Indira Gandhi swept the 1971 election crying “Garibi hatao” end poverty and Indians still poor feel cheated.

Most Indians have no chance of bettering themselves. They live in little rooms and spend their days on overcrowded streets. Nerves fray easily. On the pavements pedestrians bump into each other rather than step aside and small offences tum quickly into shouting matches. Among frustrated people violence sparks easily. .

Amid this moral decay religious ethnic and caste crusades have a growing appeal. People find a purity in them which they do not find in secular national parties And an increasing number of people are willing to kill in the name of causes which they find holier than the discredited law of the land Hence the burgeoning popularity of the Bharatiya Janata Party a fringe party of Hindu extremists only a few years ago 1t looks as though it could be part of government after the election.

As institutions weaken individuals take over. So Congress clinging to the Nehru Gandhi dynasty as the country’s only stable political landmark elected Sonia Gandhi Rajiv’s widow as party president. That decision exposed the party’s bankruptcy with no leader of stature to replace Mr Gandhi they turned to a woman whose only political asset was her name which the party hoped would bring in the sympathy vote that swung Rajiv into power after his mother’s death in 1984.

Sonia Gandhi however has shown an extreme distaste for politics When Rajiv was persuaded to go into the family business by his mother in 1980 Sonia was against it. She was happier being the wife of an airline pilot.

Sonia refused the party presidency not surprisingly; and the stock markets which had plunged at the news of Rajiv’s death and risen at the news of her election plunged again. Her decision has left Congress headless and embarrassed at having exposed its weakness.

‘The party is unlikely to give up on Sonia It is worth remembering that when Indira asked Rajiv to go into politics after his elder brother’s death in 1980 he put out a statement saying that he had no such intention. Sonia might be persuaded to keep a seat warm for her daughter Priyanka is only 20 (the minimum age for a seat in the lower house is 25) but is said to be sharp and keen on politics.

After all these years, a non-family member will have little authority. One possibility, P.V. Narasimha Rao, is a former foreign minister whose ill-health means he cannot hope to become a permanent head of the party. For that reason, he might be accept- able as a temporary chief. Sharad Pawar, chief minister of Maharashwa, is by far the strongest Congress state leader. Narain Dutt Tewari of Uttar Pradesh could be a con- tender if he wins the state election being held alongside the parliamentary one, but he may be beaten by the BJP. There is some talk of a collective leadership, but that would not last.

Congress might still garner sympathy votes. Before the assassination opinion polls gave the party 225 to 310 seats out of 537. Votes have been cast in 40% of the seats. Congress might just be able to form the next government alone; if not it would try to split bits off other parties. IF that did not work a coalition would have to be built.

One possibility given the strong showing of the BJP and the equally strong antipathy to its views amongst the other parties is a secularist line-up. Indians of many parties have been terrified by the prospect of escalating Hindu-Muslim violence highlighted in Meerut in Uttar Pradesh during the first round of voting when 19 people were killed. Such an alliance would bring together Congress the breakaway Socialist Janata Dal run by Chandra Shekhar and the Janata Dal of V.P.Singh. The Communists implacable enemies of the BJP would give the support

That prospect may be less depressing than a future dominated by the BJP but it leaves little room for optimism. Coalitions have.

(The Economist)

Article extracted from this publication >> May 31, 1991