A special task force of the U.S. House Republican Research Committee is of the view that deep suspicions have grown between India and Pakistan and as other powers come into play the danger of outright war becomes ever more real.
The task force is further of the opinion that Pakistan had _ concluded that holding Kashmir talks with India was: futile and that Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto had started _ meeting here military officers demands for increased defence allocations.
There is nothing new about tension between India and Pakistan Noris anything unique about the growing indo Pak suspicions. Both the countries have been living with tensions and suspicions. What is new about the situation is India’s last gamble to keep Kashmir under its heels through the current military actions in the valley. India’s calculation is that it could somehow mollify public opinion in the western countries by organizing some sort of elections. India’s military governed in Kashmir K.V Krishna Rao is confident of the poll being held within the next three months. The Indian aim is to take the wind out of the Kashmiris sails of plebiscite Its failure to would mean far more pressure on India to hold a plebiscite under international supervision. That would mean an end to India’s hold on Kashmir.
It is true that despite the lack of concern shown by the U.S administration in the Kashmiris plight international interest in the problem is growing. The task force itself has hinted at the possibility of Iran and certain other Islamic countries financing the Kashmir movement Other reports also indicate that the Kashmiri youths’ armed movement against India is getting stronger and stronger every day. For instance earlier the Kashmir valley was the movement’s mainstay but now the movement has spread to Doda district near Jammu also. The B_J.P. has issued a ‘save Doda call to the Indian people. Most Kashmiri youths have abandoned their homes and have taken shelter in high mountains which are not easily accessible to the Indian army. More than four lakh Indian troops have been deployed in Kashmir to crush the freedom movement.
While Kashmiris are determined to free themselves there have been changes in the political situation in the State. Farooq Abdullah was pulled out of London by India a few months ago to make a Longowal out of him. But he was wiser by now. He asked India to grant autonomy to Kashmir then would his services to India be available. But India is unwilling even to grant more powers to Kashmir. Consequently Abdullah has gone back to London. On the other hand there has been Opposition to the proposal to merge Kashmir into Pakistan. The mass-based Hurriyat conference is in favor of Kashmir becoming free from both India and Pakistan. Prime Minister Bhutto has also conceded some time ago that Pakistan could fail in the event of Kashmiris being given the third option of freedom in a plebiscite. These changes have made India more desperate to show results but there is doubt in Delhi itself about the _ boastful claims of governor Krishna Rao about elections _ within three months. In other words the current level of Crises in Kashmir is here to stay for quite some time. In these circumstances India and Pakistan going on a _ war depend not only on the entry of outside powers but / also on whether India has the immediate prospect of getting defeated in Kashmir. That depends on the level of _ movements in Punjab and other states of India.
Article extracted from this publication >> July 15, 1994
