Scoffing at the one-time waiver and capping argument on the floor of the US Senate on March 25 Mr Larry Pressler said: If the US delivers the F-16s to Pakistan India certainly will react by escalating its procurement of arms… Tensions will mount. Two countries that have been at war three limes once again will find themselves on the brink. Some of the questions that the new American proposal raises are there a shift in the US policy for South Asia? Will the USA succeed in its verifiable capping and reduction strategy? Will the supply of F-16s to Pakistan bring India and’ Pakistan on the brink of war? America’s top priority in this region has always been to persuade India and Pakistan to sign the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) so that they do not create any problems for it by possessing destructive nuclear weapons. America also wants to keep a strategic balance between these countries because this reduces the chances of a bigger and stronger India attacking a smaller and weaker Pakistan. Besides the USA wants to develop a firmer hold in this region to contain China This hold it knows full well can only come by bringing a peaceful settlement between India and Pakistan. America also knows that the road to this Settlement nuns through Kashmir.

In essence it would be might to Say that there is no shift in the overall US policy for South Asia it wanted and still wants India and Pakistan to sign the NPT.

Having failed to achieve its aim by the proverbial carrot and suck method in which it showed the stick to India on human rights violations and to Pakistan by stopping military and economic aid by the adoption of the Pressler Amendment in October 1990 AS for dangling of a carrot before them it started enlarging economic aid to and investment in India besides commencing a new era of military Cooperation and joint exercises under the Kickleighter plan. In regard to Pakistan it covertly began to lend a helping hand in the settlement of the Kashmir problem not only that the USA also pulled Pakistan’s chestnuts out of the fire by dramatically stopping short of declaring it a terrorist state last year.

All this did not achieve much Success hence the ball has been Set rolling towards the new game plan of one-time waiver and verifiable capping 16 persuade Pakistan and India to sign the NPT noth with standing India’s strong Objection to this treaty being totally discriminatory.

The new US strategy flies in the face of logic and therefore has not evoked support even in the USA leave alone in India and Pakistan. The proposal of one-time waiver to the Pressler Amendment to supply 38 F-16 combat aircraft to Pakistan (which are capable of delivering nuclear weapons on their targets and for which Pakistan has already paid $ 658 million) has been strongly opposed by its author Senator Larry Prissier Senator John Glenn and others in the Congress.  

Notwithstanding the opposition in the Congress the Clinton Administration is likely to get the

One-time waive proposal Cleared by playing up the advantages of Verifiable capping

It may not be easy for Pakistan to agree to this proposal because Ms Benazir Bhutto is already under pressure from Mr Nawaz Sharif for softening her stand on this issue. More important than this is the fact that for Pakistan its nuclear programme is the only potent deterrent against India. No doubt the Clinton Administration is trying assure Pakistan that if it accepts verifiable capping the USA Will then persuade India to do the same. But what puts a palpable damper on the success of the American strategy is Pakistani army chief Gen Abdul Wahid’s Statement in

Washington on March 31 We do not want the useless aircraft if it means we have to bargain away Pakistan’s nuclear program.

As for India despite all the US incentives offered by the Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbot and the invitation to Narasimha Rao to visit the USA in May India cannot agree to comply with the American nuclear non-proliferation proposals which if anything will be suicidal for the country because pan from other negative factors they will put India at 4 Breat disadvantage vis-a-vis China which has emerged as a nuclear power.

From all accounts it is ‘clear that the USA will not succeed in its Verifiable capping and education strategy.

Article extracted from this publication >> June 3, 1994