After the Moghul Empire fell but before the British arrived India was ruled by the Marathas who swept north from their homeland around present-day Bombay to capture Delhi and the great Northern Plain History repeated itself this week on a modest scale The men of Maharashtra the state of which Bombay is the capital made a partial conquest of the Congress party-and India’s government when voters in the former Congress strongholds of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar firmly turned their backs on the party in the general election. This modern Maharashtra ascendancy will also be an interregnum between the four decades of rule by the old Nehru-dominated Congress Party which is over and a new political arrangement whose shape is yet to be made out.

It may seem odd to refer to the death of a party which after 18 months in opposition has now regained office. Congress and its allies won around 240 seats out of the 511 being contested-not a majority but enough to let Congress govern with the support of others in parliament. Yet the truth is that had it not been for Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination on May 21 the largest number of seats might well have gone to the Hindu nationalists of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

When Gandhi was killed on May 21 some 40% of the votes had already been cast; the second and third rounds of voting which had been due in the following few days were postponed until June 12 and 15. What is clear is that Congress did much better after Gandhi’s death than before Congress’s post-Gandhi vote was around nine percentage points higher than in the first round But for the fear and sympathy aroused by the assassination Congress might have won only 160 seats instead of the conjectured 240; the National Front and its Left Front allies some 155 seats instead of 125; and the BJP 160-170 instead of 125.

The rise of the BJP is the momentous fact of this election. In the first election it contested in 1984 the BJP won two seats. In 1989 it won 86 This time it more than doubled its share of the ballots cast to over 25%-and took one of every three Hindu votes. It swept India’s biggest state (and Congress’s former bulwark) Uttar Pradesh. Clearly it is now a national party-at least as much as Congress.

This is why the question for India is whether the BJP is a Trojan horse of fascism. Or has it been using Hindu chauvinism just to establish itself before becoming a sober party of the centre-right? Either way the BJP is now India’s official opposition.

Contrast the confusion of Congress. The shift in support away from the north humbled some (notably N.D.Tiwari from Uttar Pradesh who had been thought a likely prime minister but was not even elected.) It elevated others none more than Sharad Pawar.

Pawar takes credit for Congress’s ballot-box brilliance in Maharashtra Had there been a secret poll of Congress MPs to choose the prime minister he would probably have won it but he has many enemies among the old guard who mistrust his progressive ideas (and more to the point would not profit under him).

On Thursday the Congress MPs picked P.V Narasimha Rao a70yr-old with a heart problem ‘ be prime minister. Pawar whose friend’s joke that Marathas make kings rather than become them is to get the powerful home ministry. As Rao’s number two he will be well placed to elbow the old man aside. To complete the deal Arjun Singh the boss of Madhya Pradesh is to become party president.

Any such government would be unstable if Congress had a parliamentary majority which it does not. No coalition partner is in sight. The BJP is anathema. Chandra Shekhar the outgoing prime minister could have been an ally. But only three members of Mr Shekhar’s party including him were elected; so he is useless.

One clement of the leftist alliance led by the man Shekhar had displaced as Prime Minister V.P.Singh has declared itself uninterested. The Left Front which includes the two Communist Parties wants no truck with the coming economic austerity. Mr Singh’s own core group Janata Dal is split on the question of a coalition and he himself is undecided. Janata> Dal will therefore back the govt on specific issues crucially the economy while maintaining its independence.

The upshot is that stability is likely only when (in six months a year?) someone probably Pawar can entice a segment of Janata Dal into Congress and kick out Mr Rao

That leaves many problems unresolved not least the tension between Hindus and Muslims. Many in Congress are delighted that the BJP unexpectedly won the state govt of Uttar Pradesh Where the disputed mosque at Ayodhya is located the People who whipped up the issue in the first place will nowh have to deal with it.

Economist June 22

Article extracted from this publication >> June 28, 1991