Rajiv Gandhi’s ashes were divided into 35 lots. His widow and children took two ums to Allahabad where the Ganges and the Yamuna rivers join. His son Rahul scattered them on the water then turned to his mother weeping. One urn was emptied from an aircraft over the Himalayas The other 32 were squabbled over by Congress Party politicians then carried off to India’s Slates to be used in a desperate attempt to collect the sympathy vote

India’s politics shabby at the best of times has rarely looked shabbier than in the week after Rajiv Gandhi’s death on May 21st. The Congress party lapsed into acrimonious argument: how should it exploit its leader’s murder and who should succeed him as party president? After Sonia Gandhi’s refusal the party divided: some thought they should persist in pressing Mrs Gandhi; some thought the Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar a former Congress man should be co-opted; and some thought there should be a leadership ballot.

Given the need to get some of leader in place before the closing rounds of voting in the election due on June 12th and 15th the party settled on a compromise It elected a leader who would be an unlikely prime minister-P.V.Narasimha Rao a former foreign minister. Mr Rao is in ill health and is not Contesting the election.

Mr Rao’s principal qualification for the job is his loyalty to the Gandhi’s. During the controversial emergency that Indira Gandhi imposed in 1975-77 he was a loyal general secretary of the party. After Mrs Gandhi lost the election in 1977 he was a standard-bearer for the party in parliament. When Mrs Gandhi returned to power in 1980 he was rewarded with the foreign ministry.

Constitutionally he could become prime minister if Congress won the election though he would then have to win a parliamentary seat within six months. But no one believes his political future will extend very far. That is why heavyweights such as Sharad Pawar chief minister of Maharashtra and N.D. Tiwari former chief minister of Uttar Pradesh can accept him.

The voters may be less accommodating. By failing to provide a political heir to Mr Gandhi Congress risks dissipating the sympathy it is hoping to create: with each passing day grief for Rajiv may give way to worries about the cohesion of Congress. A worried Congress attempted to persuade the election commission to bring forward the dates for the next rounds of young. The election commission refused.

But Congress’s real challenge is to convince the electorate that it will return to being the sort of party it was half a century ago a decentralized affair with strong grassroots leaders. Jawaharlal Nehru and his daughter Indira Gandhi (latterly in partnership with her younger son Sanjay) drew power to themselves and abandoned that tradition; Rajiv likewise. How can Congress having tried to recruit the last available Gandhi now carry conviction as a party of principles not personalities? Despite promising pre-election opinion polls the signs from the voting on May 20th before the assassination are against Congress Voting took piece in 40% of the constituencies Exit polls in Chandigarh and Delhi suggest a swing of 7% to 9% away from Congress in these cities with the Bharatiya Janata Party gaining most from its message of Hindu chauvinism. Yet the non-Congress parties’ gain in seats may be less than the swing suggests. In the previous election Congress’s opponents had an electoral pact Now they do not And voting still has to take place in Congress strongholds in the south and west. In Tamil Nadu the regional party opposing Congress is linked to the Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka who are thought to have been

behind the assassination. The BJP however thinks it has found a strong card. Before Mr Gandhi’s death Congress was campaigning as a force for stability. That stability was embodied in the Gandhi family Without Rajiv the party looks like a group of fratricidal factions. Many Indians stunned by the assassination are looking for comfort and security. L.K.Advani the BJP leader believes that he and Hinduism provide a better focus for such yearnings than the factions swearing temporary loyalty to Mr Rao. Unlike Congress the BJP has always been a disciplined party. Mr Advani has urged his supporters to go out and campaign with a Killer instinct an unfortunate phrase What of V.P.Singh head of the Janata Dal and prime minister for a year until November 1990? Since he never seemed in control of his party’s factions when he was in power and his party ultimately split he cannot convincingly offer the country stability. Indeed he now seems in danger of losing yet more factions to Congress.

A new political alignment therefore suggests itself. Whereas since 1947 the key question before voters has always been whether they were for or against the Gandhi family now the question could be whether voters are for or against the BJP.

This oddly could help Congress if it could unite around a leader. Chandra Shekhar (who leads the tiny Socialist Janata Dal Party) thinks it should be him He and Mr Singh were in Congress until they fell afoul of the Gandhi family. Mr Shekhar is a leader without a party whereas Congress is a party without a leader. Even the Marxists once implacable foes of the Gandhi’s are talking of the need for all secular forces to unite in the country’s hour of need. But is Congress yet ready for Mr Shekhar?

(Economist June 11,991)

Article extracted from this publication >> June 14, 1991