NEW DELHI: With less than a week to polling for the Indian Parliament it is reasonably certain that former Prime Minister V.P Singh led national font will score handsome gains while former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi led Congress (I) will suffer setbacks. The other major contender for power in India the Hindu fundamentalist Bharatiya Janata Party too is likely 0 improve its tally in terms of mass support but may not on its own be able to win enough seats.

Congress (I)’s traditional support base comprising numerically strong Scheduled and backward castes has been shifting away from the party and appears to be moving in favor of V.P Singh led Janata Dal. Similarly Minorities including Muslims Sikhs Christians etc. too have been veering round Mr Singh’s party. These vole groups together command about 15% of the electorate. They have traditionally been backing Congress (I). However Mr V.P Singh can no longer count on the support of upper castes in the Indian society owing to his government’s move to allocate 27% posts in public sector to the backward castes.

This polarisation between the upper and backward castes is sought to be neutralized by the BJP which has come out with the slogan of building a Ram temple at the place where now stands the Babri mosque at Ayodhia in U.P. There is evidence of the trend of upper castes shifting in favor of B.J.P with politically backward castes finding themselves in a dilemma whether to support V.P Singh and his associate parties or the B.J.P. while their religious interests lead them to support B.J.P their economic well-being is in installing Mr V.P Singh hack to power.

In this scenario one thing is fairly clear. The Samajwadi Janata Dal of Mr Chandra Shekhar is in for surprises. The party’s main support comes from U.P. Chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and Haryana’s supremo Devi Lal While Yadav may manage to bag a few seats it will be quite difficult for Devi Lal to retain his existing power in Haryana. All in all Mr Chandra Shekhar’s group will emerge as a non-entity.

The Janata Dal will gain in UP and Bihar whole its allies the C P (M) the C.P.I and the Haryana Vikas Party will have a good showing in West Bengal Kerala and Haryana. The Janata Dal is also likely to do well elsewhere in the country.

Pre-poll surveys carried out by Delhi’s Sunday Mail conclude that Janata Dal was ahead of other parties in U.P. and Bihar the slates where the survey was conducted Congress (I) comes close second and the B.J.P. way behind the two parties. While 27% sample voters opted for Janata Dal 26% for Congress (I) only 22% were inclined to support the B.J.P. As high a percentage of 22 of the electorate were uncertain. The two States together have 139 seats in India’s lower house as against the total strength of 525.

There is every likelihood of the Janata Dal and its allies sweeping Bihar with its 54-strong contingent for the Lok Sabha. The sample survey shows that Congress (I)’s support base in Bihar has crumbled from 32% in 1989 to 22% in the forthcoming poll The B.J.P. will also perform poorly in Bihar.

Sikhs in urban and rural areas in the entire country are determined to teach Congress (I) a lesson for engineering massacre of Sikhs in 1984. In the urban areas the Sikhs will not hesitate even from supporting B.J.P. and that is what is happening in Delhi and U.P. They will however back Janata Dal in rural areas of U.P. Haryana Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh.

Article extracted from this publication >> May 17, 1991