Peaceful and orderly conduct of election to the Pakistan national assembly and the provincial assemblies raises Pakistan’s stock in the world as a democratic state; Pakistan was derided by its opponents as an army led dictatorship. Not so any longer. The change in Pakistan’s political situation has come about largely due to the army’s impartial role.
The army appears to be governed by its perception of the threats from India. There have been geopolitical changes in Asia in the wake of the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and the collapse of Soviet state, Asa result of these changes due to internal developments in India, the might of the Indian state dwindled vis a vis Pakistan leaving its leaders free to grapple with internal problems including those of democracy. On the other hand, internal strife particularly in Punjab and Kashmir made India vulnerable. It will not be a wrong statement to suggest that the content, if not form, of Indian democracy has correspondingly gone down in the recent past with several key states going without elections. The results of the Pak elections make it clear that the governments both at the national and provincial levels will be unstable. Such a situation is not necessarily bad for democracy or for the people of Pakistan.
A stable democracy is capable of being converted into a UN proclaimed dictatorship considering the amount of power yielded by the bureaucracy in countries like Pakistan and India. Small parties, minorities and independents will have considerable say in the affairs of the country. What is important is that the Pakistan state is today more assertive of its identity than ever before. It no longer faces the grave threats to its very existence from countries like India. On the other hand, it is India which now feels threatened from Pakistan. Whether Benazir Bhutto or Mian Nawaz Sharif takes over as prime minister, it is unlikely to make much difference to the country’s foreign policy, Kashmir will remain the central issue between India and Pakistan for quite some time, Benazir may not be able to ignore this reality. More so when a large majority of the people of Pakistan are sensitive about the Indian treatment of Kashmir. Thus even the army will continue to have a role in regard to the country’s Kashmir policy. The Kashmir issue is very closely connected with Pakistan’s defence policy. The new prime minister will have to contend with the army’s perception of its role Vis a Vis the Kashmir issue. India as such will have to live with Pakistan’s increasing efforts to internationalize the Kashmir issue. Even then Pakistan is likely to respond to any meaningful Indian initiative 10 open talks on the Kashmir issue.
It, however, remains to be seen whether India will continue to have an “elected government” by the time Pakistan settles down to talk on Kashmir. The absence of an elected government in Pakistan was cited as a reason by India why it was delaying talks on the issue, the quality of the Indian government’s stability will hinge on the results of the forthcoming elections to the four state assembly elections in India. In the circumstances, it is difficult to foresee a thaw in Indo Pak relations.
Article extracted from this publication >> October 15, 1993
