NEW DELHI: Political turmoil in India in the wake of combined opposition’s vote of no confidence against prime minister Narasimha Rao has an inevitable message to convey: the country’s halfhearted measures towards economic liberalization may be short-lived and India may well be on way to midterm election.
It was clear to political analysts on the eve of the crucial vote on the anti-Rao motion in India’s lower house of Parliament on July 27 that the Indian ruling elite has been greatly weakened by charges of corruption. Whether Rao wins or loses, the central government in the country will have to make compromises at the expense of economic liberalization. The pull of the powerful bureaucracy on India’s body politic will grow once again. The bureaucracy encompasses nearly 10% of population. It controls the vast bureaucratic socialist public sector which has been the first to feel the pinch of halfhearted liberalization measures. No political party in India at least in the short run can afford to go who long for liberalization to alienate the bureaucracy. More so when midterm poll in four Hindu states is due sometime later this year or early next year.
In the tussle for power, leftist groups are emerging as a kind of balancing factor. Even non leftist, non BJP parties do not have much love lost for finance minister Manmohan Singh’s liberalization programs, Most of these segments control trade unions which are dead Set against any kind of reforms, In essence, the interests of trade unions coincide with India’s traditional monopoly houses whose interests have been hit by the prospects of world competition. Moreover, most of the opposition groups in the country are politically as conservative as the ruling Congress(I). All indications from the current controversy point to the possibility of at least some of the liberalization measures being rolled back or in any case their further advance being checked.
On the eve of the counting of heads in India’s lower house, the ruling party was trying hard to win Over fencesitlers (6 manipulate a majority for itself, Managers of the party were putting up a brave face as if they had a hidden support base for bail out the prime minister.
When the result of the ballot of about40 motions of no confidence emerged in favor of C.P.(M)’s Makhopadhyaya, the ruling party opted for immediate discussion rather than waiting for a few days to take up the motion. The debate has to be joined in by dozens of members of all parties to take at least three days, It is at the end of this prolonged discussion that finally a vote will be taken sometime on Wednesday. Barring unexpected support, the ruling Congress(I) party appears to be in a minority. The party’s traditional Supporters such as All India Anna D.M.K. with 11 M.P.s and the Janata Dal(Ajit) with 20 MPs have taken a public stand against the prime minister.
Article extracted from this publication >> July 30, 1993
