NEW DELHI: As confidence in the Indian stock market continues to erode in response to the almost daily media exposure of the securities scam, the international investors are increasingly veering round to the emerging Chinese market.

A Finance Ministry official, who is in touch with fund managers in Europe and the US said on Saturday that while all Indian Eurodollar security issues have been put on hold, the global market is keenly watching the share prices of those companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange which have investments in Chinese companies,

Mostly engaged in the power generation and infrastructure sector, these companies are also listed on either of the two stock exchanges now functioning in mainland China the reopened Shanghai Stock Exchange and the new stock exchange in Shenzhen.

According to the Finance Ministry source the fund managers abroad are impressed by the recent consolidation of overseas Chinese investors at the western stock markets a phenomenon which has even been noticed by the lead managers of some of the Indian companies which had been planning to issue Global Depository Receipts (GDR).

It is understood that BZW Investment Management, the well-known market syndicators have detected a pattern of investment which points towards a growing consolidation among the overseas Chinese in Taiwan, Hong Kong and the US, with a combined investment potential of $1 trillion.

Interestingly, investments by the overseas Chinese may serve as a catalyst for further investment from the West. Though these new investments are being routed through the Hong Kong Stock Market, the mainland Chinese market is impressive on its own merit, the country having recorded a gross GDP of $400 billion last year, with a seven per cent annual GDP growth rate and a high rate of savings.

The current inflation rate in China is only three percent, compared to India’s 12.5%. Besides, BZW Investment Management have reportedly characterized the Chinese stock market as “well integrated,” allowing computerized transactions and the state exercising a highly regimented control on the listing of companies.

The Chinese companies also follow internationalized accounting practices more in tune with global accounting procedures than their counterparts in India.

However, except Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), which managed to issue its GDR with the scam trailing it by the breadth of a whisker, all other Indian companies aspiring to enter the global market have shelved their plans.

Recently, “The Asian Wall Street Journal” quoted a memorandum from Morgan Stanley, RIL’s issue manager, to finance minister Dr. Manmohan Singh, which said that the continuing closure of the Bombay Stock Exchange had “caused a mass panic among investors.”

The GDR, initially priced at $16.35, slid to $11.50 on July 16. However, Grasim Industries Limited of the Adiya Birla group, had to call off the issue after a pricing meeting in London on June 22, TISCO, which was also in the queue, announced last week that it would rather watch and wait.

The faltering entry of the Indian companies into the world market has to be viewed in the context of the strong competition from China as well as the global economic trends, In the US, the Dow Jones index has dipped by 3% since June. In Britain, the slide in the FT-SE index is as sharp as 12% since the post-poll mid-May. In Italy, the stock market index is down by 19% since last year,

In Tokyo, the Mikkei share average hit its lowest level since April 1986 on July 22. The emerging markets too have suffered as a whole, with Telemex, the Mexican Telephone Company, and Aracruz, the Brazilian trading house, having lost 20% in two months.

The finance ministry official observed that investor interest in India would be revived once the Indian market functioned normally. The unexpected good monsoon this year may stay off a process of confidence building. As far as the competition from China is concerned, it is hoped in the finance ministry that, after the cloud of scam lifts from the Indian market, the awareness will dawn on the investing public that the Chinese market is quite midget sized compared to the large Indian stock market.

Article extracted from this publication >> Aug 7, 1992