WSN India Correspondent NEW DELHE: In next week’s parliamentary elections, Rajiv Gandhi and his Congress Party are not going to have a setback but are heading towards a crushing defeat. My assessment is that the Congress (I) would be lucky to secure even 100 seats of the 525 being contested. The party won more than 400 seats in 1984 in the wake of Indira Gandhi’s assassination. Campaign reports even in the pro Congress (I) media are not exactly ecstatic as to the party’s prospects. Media backing the op position Janata Dal is however quite optimistic.
Rumours are rampant that the ruling party is in serious trouble. According to Yashwant Sinha, a Lok Dal spokesman, the Research and Analysis wing and other Central govt intelligence agencies are burning documents incriminatory to the ruling group. Many of these documents pertain to the intelligence agencies role in Punjab and Assam.
Sikh militants have often dis owned many killings of innocent persons and have blamed govt agents hand in them.
In most of India’s share markets there is nervous selling since most of the shares are controlled by pro Congress(I) elements such as Reliance Industries, Larsen and Tubro, Oswal Agro and Usha Rectifier. All these shares nosedived in the past few weeks.
Opposition parties are pinning down the Congress on the Bofors kickbacks issue, inflationary pressures and general maladministration. The ruling party is harping on the danger to India’s unity and integrity and the supposed inability of the opposition to keep the country united. Apparently, Pun jab is not on the center stage in the campaign as it was in 1984.
But a closer analysis of all the diverse elements in India’s poll drama will reveal that the militant
struggle in Punjab continues to be the main issue. For after all India’s militarization took: place after Operation Bluestar. Purchase of the Bofors howitzer was part of this. Military spending on a massive scale led to inflationary pressures with inevitable price rises.
A heavily armed army and police were given civil powers to tum the country into a police state. Police led by an unbridled coterie ruled the country. The Defense Minister, Mr. K.C. Pant, himself admitted that coterie was nonpolitical. This same group was at the back of Indira Gandhi at the time of the attack on the Golden Temple in 1984.
A comparison between the campaign now and in 1984 shows that even the Hindu voter today is more discerning. The urban middle class is alienated and the resultant erosion of the Congress(I) is going to cost it dearly. It is now relying more on minority groups. But the Sikhs in Punjab, Delhi.
Haryana and elsewhere have largely turned away from the Congress (1) as have the Muslims, Together they form 18 percent of the population. Muslims in Bihar, UP, Rajasthan Gurjarat and even South India have been badly burned in the recent large scale violence against them aided and abetted by the security forces. The threat of the demolition of a historic Babri Masjid has not helped the image of the ruling party.
The Dalits have set up a large number of their own candidates. And increasingly they are coming under the influence of Dr. Am bedkar’s teachings which calls for resistance to upper caste dominance.
To cap this scenario, the opposition has successfully evaded the trap of multi-cornered contest in 85 percent of the constituencies. Added up this presents a grim picture for the Congress (I). I would not be surprised if it is reduced to a mere two digit representation in Parliament.
Article extracted from this publication >> November 17, 1989
