NEW DELHI: The northern Hindi belt —. with nearly half the 543 lower house (Lok Sabha) seats in the region — holds the key to power in Delhi, reports PTL.
Only as a united front has the opposition posed a threat to the ruling Congress (1) in the belt, consisting of 225 seats spread over Uttar Pradesh (85 seats), Haryana (10), Himachal Pradesh (4), Delhi (7), Madhya Pradesh (40), Bihar (54) and Rajasthan (25).
Securing votes ranging between 37 per cent and 48 per cent, the congress (1) won a majority of the seats during the general elections from 1952 to 1971.
Only in 1977, when the party faced the united opposition as Janata Party after the emergency, did its votes fall to (28) per cent and the seats to a miserable two in the Hindi heartland.
Three years later, locking horns with a divided opposition, the Congress (1) polled 42 per cent of votes and 66 per cent of the seats (149) in the belt.
Riding a sympathy wave after the death of Indira Gandhi, the party improved its tally to (217) seat getting (58) per cent of the votes in 1984.
The Janata party, which swept the polls in 1977 winning 219 seats in the belt, won only 61 seats in the 1980 elections, though the Janata Party and the Janata Party (secular) together polled (46) per cent of the votes or nearly four per cent more than the Congress(1) in the felt.
In the 1984 elections 100, the BJP, the Janata Party and the Lok Dal together polled (30) per cent of the votes but as the votes were split, they won only four seats,
As no particular wave is favoring any party this time, the trend indicates that the Congress (1) may find it easy in the Hindi belt if the opposition fails to unite.
The Janata Dal has yet to reach seat adjustments with the BJP, which fared quite fell in the recent civic elections in the key state of Uttar Pradesh, and is a major factor in the rest of the region.
Uttar Pradesh, which has provided all the prime ministers except in 1977, may do so yet again as Congress (1) leader Rajiv Gandhi and Janata Dal chief Vishwanath Pratap Singh, the prime contenders to the post, hail from the state.
The Janata Dal appears to have an edge over the Congress) in Haryana (10 seats) as in the assembly elections in 1987. The Lok Sal, which later merged to form the Janata Dal, polled 38 per cent of votes, defeating the Congress (1) which got 29 per cent of votes.
The ruling party will face a stiff fight from the BJP in all the prestigious seven seats from Delhi and also in Himachal Pradesh.
In the southern belt (130) seats, the Janata Dal has a strong ally in the Telugu Desam in Anohra Pradesh (42 seats), Telogo Desam leader N. T. Rama Rao stemmed the sympathy wave in favor of the Congress (1) in 1984, polling 45 per cent of the votes and 30 seats to become the main opposition party in Lok Sabha.
Article extracted from this publication >> October 27, 1989
